2017-18 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

Darvish is a much better idea but there's simply no indication the Phillies are in on him, or he's interested in them, and certainly not any indication that they could structure a more team-friendly deal that he'd want to take over another offer. If he settles for less in any way (contract-wise or by joining a less certain contender) it will be to go back to one of his previous teams.

It is of course entirely possible that the Phillies aren't bluffing here, and that they simply do not like any of those Top 4 available FA pitchers at four years or more, and they will happily settle for a lesser guy and the kids. They could still give a lefty three years or get a one-year guy, and if this really is a 78-81 win team, they'll have a lot of options in July.

But I also think the state of the market is something the Phillies could take advantage of. If the Yankees and Dodgers are sitting out to reset and teams in general aren't hot to spend, the Phillies can do so without little consequence. But if their analytics are telling them the same thing as other teams, it's not an easy call either.

[Austinfan]

I think Klentak will overpay, but he won't give a gross overpay.
For one thing, a GM wants to retain the trust of his owner, it is HIS money on the line.
Middleton may say he wants to buy a winner, but you don't think he'll change his tune if they spend $150M on Darvish and the team wins 75 games and he's so-so?
When an owner says spend to win, you'd better win.

So sometimes it's better to temper expectations so that when the time comes when there's an opportunity to spend big money when it'll make a real difference, the owner is on board.

[nycphils]

with all the hype, I’m pretty doubtful that the Phillies land a big fish in 2019.

Machado seems destined for the Yankees, and Harper for the Cubs (his stupid dog is named Wrigley!), and I expect the Dodgers to resign kershaw.

Maybe Keukel shakes loose or even Andrew Miller, or Josh Donaldson if Franco flops again, but the rest aren’t fits (Charlie Blackmon, AJ Pollack) or aren’t improvements or are too old or fragile.

[allentown]

That's one of my fears about Phillies' management/ownership and the AF approach. If they consider Darvish or Arrietta or Lynn to be too expensive/too long a contract, I just think that when push comes to shove they will gag paying out $300-400 million on a very long contract (with multiple dead years) to a Machado or Harper. They are going to get minimum 10-year contracts and possibly 12 years at $30+ million a year.

[andyb]

Clearly the Phillies have been reticent about contract length for free agents beyond the top tier. As for dollars though, they probably overpaid a bit for all 3 of the free agents they signed so far. I do share the worry that we can't assume they can land a $200 million plus free agent in a competitive environment against the Yankees and Dodgers. Part of the reason we did the Thome contract was to announce to the baseball world that they were competing for top talent again.

[zambonir]

I don't think you can draw any conclusions about their approach to positions players from their approach to pitchers. Or their approach to two FAs who are under 30 based on their approach to free agents over 30.

I also don't think they are going to shy away from the crazy contract for Machado or Harper They've known what that was going to take since the day Klentak was hired (maybe even before) and that is including the cost of possibly outbidding LA, NY or Chicago. The all-or-nothing aspect of it is a little disconcerting but if they don't get either of them that leaves a heck of a lot of money and flexibility, as well as tradeable depth, to improve the team as needed.

MacPhail has repeatedly said he believes you can acquire pitching on the trade market when the time comes, and I don't think he's wrong. Certainly there are FA pitchers who will be just as attractive as Cobb or Lynn, and there will also be more Verlanders and Coles available.

[Austinfan]

The problem with Machado and Harper is that money won't matter, because the numbers are so high that an extra $50M is meaningless (and union pressure is as well). At that point players will make decisions on personal preference where they want to play and live for the next decade. And Philadelphia is not high on anyone's list other than Trout.

The difference between $30 and $40M is much more meaningful than the difference between $350 and $400M, especially when endorsement opportunities are much great in LA and NYC.

The Phillies are essentially a small market team with big market money, the best way to use it will be to retain their own players, and not be used by agents to drive up the price for players who want to go elsewhere. We can get FAs like Santana, but I doubt we ever land a big fish (top player in his prime, we can be played for suckers for over 30 names on the downswing of their careers). We should have been major players in LA when money talked, and we should invest heavily into scouting and international signings. Japan will be tough, we're not a destination city for top talent - that's where Seattle has a competitive advantage as a second tier city (it's also beautiful, and multi-millionaires may value quality of life).

[EDmuch]

McPhail is wrong about just being able to pick up a solid pitcher whenever you want one. The pitching UFA market after this season is pretty thin. And as we have seen, trading requires you to give up some top prospects.

[jimbomill]

I agree, Trades can be expensive, but the more $$$ you eat in the trade, the less costly the player can be; (Greinke comes to mind)

[andyb]

The Phillies are NOT a small market team. They are not NY or LA but they will always be one of the top 10 teams market-wise. If they want top free agents they will be able to get them if their offer is competitive. We can land big fish players in their prime (Thome, Halladay, Lee). All those deals had their unique circumstances but they were also top stars who wanted to come to Philly for a combination of money or wanting to play for a good team.

No reason it can't happen again.

[Austinfan]

Halladay and Lee were trades.
Resigning Lee was a unique situation.

[andyb]

Halladay and Lee were trades.
Resigning Lee was a unique situation.

Halladay was a trade with an understanding he would get a contract extension. It was a trade, however, of the best pitcher in baseball who WANTED TO COME TO PHILADELPHIA. Which is my point.

Lee was not a trade. He was a free agent signing where the Phillies bid competitive money against the Yankees. No clue what you mean by unique other than perhaps that is you saying you were wrong and yes, the Phillies can attract top talent to play in Philadelphia.

There is just no evidence to your point that top free agents would not want to come to play in Philadelphia. They have not in the past 5 years simply because we have not tried to bring any in. Frankly with the harder luxury tax line now it should be easier for the Phillies to attract top free agents bidding against the Yankees and Dodgers.

[Austinfan]

He wanted to come to Philadelphia after they had won a World Series, and were a proven winner, not a team that might be good in a couple years. And he was in the last years of his career and wanted to play for a winner.

[andyb]

He wanted to come to Philadelphia after they had won a World Series, and were a proven winner, not a team that might be good in a couple years. And he was in the last years of his career and wanted to play for a winner.

And the Phillies equaled or outbid the Yankees in their contract offer.

[zambonir]

Lee was unique because he'd already played for the Phillies but the Phillies aren't going to have any problem signing big players. Players don't even live where they play for the most part. Rhys Hoskins just moved to San Diego. Who really wants to live in Chicago, except Midwest natives? A lot of players absolutely don't like New York. And did anyone really want to live in DC?

And everybody wants to live in Florida or Texas but not enough to play for bad or financially limited teams.

With Machado, the Phillies are obviously banking on their relationship from Baltimore. With Harper, it might be hard to beat out the Cubs, but he's already familiar with the NL East.

[andyb]

It is kind of silly to say that any free agent signing a $100 million plus signing is unique. It is silly because any top free agent is of course unique. They all have preferences of where they want to play, managers they like, desires to play with a contender, and desires to maximize their income. All these motivations are of course slightly different with each player.

But none of this is a reason to say that top free agents will not come to Philadelphia especially if the money is equal. The team is not a current winner but has a young core and a good minor league system. There are plenty of reasons for top free agents to play here if the money is competitive. There is no evidence that says players won't come to Philly if the money is competitive. I fully believe we would be in the Darvish mix if we wanted to. They have apparently decided not to go after him, but that decision has little to do with whether Darvish (or Machado or Harper) would actually come here if the money was competitive. We just have not offered top money to any free agent really since Lee, so we can't say that players will not come here till we at least try to get them.

[California_Dreamin]

Philadelphia is most certainly a large market team. In fact, it seems the only two people who don't think so are Bill Giles and AF. I still recall Scott Boras calling the Phillies a "Goliath."

[zambonir]

And let's not underrate Santana. He may not be the youngest or highest-rated guy but he's no less of a top player than, say, Lance Lynn, they paid top dollar, and they beat out a team that won 102 games (and was in the previous year's World Series) for him.

I believe the Phillies could sign any of the pitchers this year, though Darvish would be the hardest one. They just don't necessarily want to, for any number of reasons (in some cases it might be money, in others age/contract length, in others they might just not rate the available player).

And if they wanted Hosmer (obviously no longer possible) or Moustakas they could do that too.

[andyb]

And let's not underrate Santana. He may not be the youngest or highest-rated guy but he's no less of a top player than, say, Lance Lynn, they paid top dollar, and they beat out a team that won 102 games (and was in the previous year's World Series) for him

We did slight overpays for all 3 free agents (Santana, Neshek, Hunter). They all were over the public estimates.

Nothing wrong with that though. And I acknowledge that we need to overpay a bit until we are proven winners. How much one has to overpay for the Harpers and Machados of the world is an open question. Teams are more aware of the cap now. This offseason has been about the big market teams resetting their tax rate. But I bet next season teams will be willing to go over the first cap ($206 million) but it is an open question whether they would exceed the second cap ($226 million, 12% extra tax rate) or most likely the 3rd cap level ($246 million, 42.5-45% rate surcharge plus dropping the number 1 pick 10 slots).

My guess is the 3rd cap ($246 million) will be like a hard cap that nobody wants to exceed. A Harper or Machado could easily go over $40 million AAV but after that teams start having to consider the 3rd cap especially if they start from a payroll north of $150 million. A team with more room like the Phillies should not get outbid too much in this situation which is different from the recent past where the Yankees and the Dodgers had much more freedom to blow way past the cap amounts.

[zambonir]

For sure. We agree that overpaying will get it done. Especially with regards to Harper and Machado who are both possibly interested in signing the largest contract of all-time. If so, AF's idea that an extra $30 million won't make a difference won't fly.

I do think the Phillies should consider the big move this year simply because the other teams are re-setting, but if you only like Moustakas or Martinez 75% as much as you like Machado or Harper, and you're worried about aging/dead years, the value of that opportunity doesn't necessarily exceed the negatives. I'm sure they could have gotten Chatwood if they'd overpaid or offered him more years but they decided he wasn't worth that, probably correctly. Very correctly, if it turns out some of these other guys aren't going to get the deals they want.

It's insane that we're less than two weeks away from February 1. Typically many players will already be at their team facilities by then, or at least settling into their housing and working out. Kind of hilarious that anyone was worried the Phillies weren't being aggressive enough two months ago. Pretty much every big move we might want them to make is still theoretically available.