2017-18 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[nycphils]

My trade wish list is:

Bumgartner
Archer
Stroman
Machado
Zach Britton

One of the benefits of having a very deep farm is it makes sense to trade for high end controllable assets (yes, Britton and Machado aren't controllable...but the Phils can sign them) because you don't have to gut the system to get there.

[julio]

At 9 am this morning, Andres Blanco, Clay Buchholz, Hyun Soo Kim and Daniel Nava became free agents. No later than next Monday, the players currently on the 60-day DL (Eflin, Eickhoff, Therrien, Velasquez, Florimon) must be reinstated to the 40-man roster - at which time the roster will be full (at 40 players).

[Philsmania]

Bumgarner isn't going to happen. The Giants think that 2017 was just one of those seasons and that next year, they will contend again.

[zambonir]

I just don't know if the Phillies have the assets to play at the top of the trade market. Also I don't think the Orioles will wave the white flag in the off-season. Sure, I'd trade the farm for Machado but only if he agreed to the extension which I doubt he will. Or rather, I doubt the Phillies will want to pay a high trade price and make a pre-emptive contract offer, when they could just do the latter without the former.

Archer is a good target. Stroman might be.

But who's not "untouchable" on the farm that is also seriously valuable? For someone like Bumgarner.

[andyb]

Archer has always been my preferred target since he is undervalued (W-L record, FIP much better than ERA). The problem is that his contract is SO team friendly the price would be prohibitive. If his options are picked up it is a 4 year/$34 million contract. And the worst case of him getting hurt is only a little more than $16 million. A good contract comparison is the one Cliff Lee had when we got him. The years of underpriced control just make the player pretty expensive.

Stroman is not quite the pitcher Archer is, but would be more expensive in arbitration. Something like $7 million, $12 million, and $18 million for 3 years if things went reasonably well (i.e. he was good but not a Cy Young candidate). Now there are no guarantees with arbitration, but Archer is a better pitcher who would get paid less money over 4 years than Stroman would over 3.

If we don't want to trade Sixto I am not sure we could put together a deal for either one of these pitchers unfortunately. Would love to have either one of them.

[Austinfan]

Well, Darvish was exposed in the World Series, plus FB and slider, below average command = #2/#3 starter.
He's two years from TJ and over 30, so only the very optimistic would think he's going to make a significant improvement before his decline sets in.

[andyb]

Or it was the slick balls and bad luck against a good hitting team. His free agency price probably dropped because of the WS. So he might be more of a bargain against people that over value every small size event.

[zambonir]

Yup, I'd certainly explore whether Darvish's perceived value has dropped, but those two games don't mean anything more than Cliff Lee's did in 2010, and we didn't exactly buy him on the bargain rack.

[Philsmania]

MLBTR predicts we sign Tanaka and Chatwood. Just picking things out of thin air with nothing else to write about, I suppose.

2017-18 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

[Austinfan]

Except the post-season merely reflected his entire season. Two good playoff starts, two bad WS starts.
His 2017 season was good but not great, and watching him against the Phillies was similar to his post-season performance, he struggled with command that day as well.
31 starts, 186 IP, 3.86 ERA/3.83 FIP
Let's forget about him suddenly taking his game to the next level. He'll turn 32 next August. He's two years from TJ surgery. There's no real upside here.
What you saw is probably all you're gonna get, a power pitcher who runs up pitch counts and only averaged 6 IP per start.
In my book that makes him a #2/#3 starter, and in 3 years a #3/#4 at best.

[Austinfan]

I'd much rather have Chatwood and Lynn on reasonable contracts than pay Darvish $25M and Tanaka $20M.
Both have as much upside and on reasonable deals, far less downside.
Check Chatwood's away stats - he could be a steal, had a big jump in velocity two years from TJ surgery.

[zambonir]

6 IPs isn't "only" anymore. Also the Dodgers actually worked with him to lower his pitch count (and they also would have lowered his innings on purpose since that is their philosophy).

It's semantics, I certainly don't think the Phillies are in the place where they should get him at the top of the market but whether he's a #1 or a #3 I'd take him if he was reasonable, and he may or may not be the best pitcher on the staff in 2017 if they did have him, but either way he'd make the team better for at least two years. Money is no object for the Phillies if he was actually available on a three-year deal, but I don't believe he will be (and I think there's a limit to how far over-market you'd go to get him on a shorter term).

Obviously not a good idea to bet on outliers either but a lot of guys made being over 30 look pretty good in these playoffs.

It'll be interesting, I read the Dodgers definitely aren't looking to bring him back (obviously they have $ issues) and we know the Yankees want to save money this season too.

[andyb]

Why does Darvish have to take his game to a "new level"? He is already good. He is a #2 starter now worth about 4 WAR and his stuff has not diminished that much. Over 6 years of course it might, but that is the chance you take with any free agent. A reasonable projection in WAR would be something like 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 2.0. Which is 17 WAR and WAR costs almost $10 million these days. Hence the free agent cost projection.

And the big reason to think about it is that we are not likely to use the money for anything else. We don't have to be the most efficient team in terms of $/WAR. We should not waste money, but the best prospects require a premium. Tanaka's injury history (and lack of surgery) scares me much more regarding his long term prospects too.

Chatwood looks like a mirage to me. I DID look at his road stats and see a guy with a 7.2 K/9 who walked 40 guys in 77 IP. Good H/IP ratio but that seems like luck to me. A .218 BABIP in road games for a guy with pedestrian stuff? Yes his velocity ticked up a bit, but he does not miss many bats which suggests the rest of his stuff is mediocre. He would not be that expensive. I just would not project him to be that good.

[Austinfan]

That's not a reasonable projection, when most pitchers go, they can decline very rapidly, because they lose that 'edge' that made them effective.
We're not talking an elite pitcher, we're talking a good but not great pitcher who lacks the command to adjust when he starts to lose velocity.

He's probably most likely to give you 8-12 WAR, maybe 1-2 good seasons, and a couple 1-2 WAR "hanging on" seasons. And maybe in the bullpen by his 5th contract year.
There just aren't many pitchers who give you 5 solid starting seasons in their 30s.

[LoneStarPhan]

For what it's worth, the MLBTR article projecting where the top 50 Free agents will end up lists Darvish as the #1 free agent and projects him to the Cubs for 6 years, $160 million.

As mentioned above, they project two of the top 50 to the Phillies:

No. 5 Tanaka 5 years, $100 MM
No. 29 Chatwood 3 years, $20 MM

Tanaka just turned 29 and Chatwood will be 28 in December, so age wise, both seem to fit what many here think the Phillies should be going for in the off season.

[zambonir]

I just don't see the Phillies doing a five-year deal this year, plus we don't even know if Tanaka is going to opt out (or leave NY if he does). And I suppose his age does balance out the term. But yeah, it's that time of year.

Chatwood as a FA at that price, plus a trade, would be plenty.

A good note in this story about the Astros.

Luck played its role, too—but the Astros’ plan, and the extended timeframe for their rebuilding effort permitted by owner Jim Crane, allowed room for good fortune. In the first season after Luhnow and his crew took over, 2012, Keuchel was a clean-shaven 24-year-old rookie who walked more batters (39) than he struck out (38), and Altuve was an undersized slap-hitter with nine career home runs. The front office had no idea that Keuchel would develop a devastating breaking ball and a more athletic delivery, as well as extraordinary facial hair, to become a Cy Young winner, or that Altuve, though still undersized, would develop into a power hitting, probable MVP. What they had was time to allow unexpected things like that to happen, as well as the analytical horsepower to expose players to every conceivable pathway by which they might improve.

Why did SI predict the Astros would win the 2017 World Series in 2014?

[andyb]

here just aren't many pitchers who give you 5 solid starting seasons in their 30s

Obviously health is a question with any pitcher of any age, but pitchers with consistent, long term track records of success tend to do better. Darvish has never pitched at a rate of less than roughly a 4 WAR season. He has done this for a decade including his Japan seasons. He is exactly the type of pitcher that has a slow decline because he has been good and consistent. He is NOT the guy who peaks with a couple of decent seasons when everything clicks (like a Chatwood). And 17 WAR is probably about what the computer projections will say he will deliver.

[zambonir]

Having read the MLBTR thing now, if they are even close to right about the valuations, the Phillies could do very well. I'd kick the tires on Arrieta (who they suggest will get a four-year deal) but Cobb, Lynn, Sabathia and numberous relievers all seem obtainable.

They do say Tanaka would get a QO from the Yankees if he opts out so I'd cross him off when you add in his cost and health. Cashner and Chatwood seem like possibilities too. One assumes this FO will target someone we don't expect.

[Philsmania]

I just don't see the Phillies doing a five-year deal this year, plus we don't even know if Tanaka is going to opt out (or leave NY if he does). And I suppose his age does balance out the term. But yeah, it's that time of year.

Chatwood as a FA at that price, plus a trade, would be plenty.

A good note in this story about the Astros.

Luck played its role, too—but the Astros’ plan, and the extended timeframe for their rebuilding effort permitted by owner Jim Crane, allowed room for good fortune. In the first season after Luhnow and his crew took over, 2012, Keuchel was a clean-shaven 24-year-old rookie who walked more batters (39) than he struck out (38), and Altuve was an undersized slap-hitter with nine career home runs. The front office had no idea that Keuchel would develop a devastating breaking ball and a more athletic delivery, as well as extraordinary facial hair, to become a Cy Young winner, or that Altuve, though still undersized, would develop into a power hitting, probable MVP. What they had was time to allow unexpected things like that to happen, as well as the analytical horsepower to expose players to every conceivable pathway by which they might improve.

Why did SI predict the Astros would win the 2017 World Series in 2014?

Then, from the blow article, there's this takeaway:

It’s worth noting that Luhnow’s deservedly unloved predecessor, Ed Wade, acquired Altuve, George Springer, and Dallas Keuchel.

The Astros aren't underdogs; they're beneficiaries of tanking

For all that Wade did wrong as a GM in both Philadelphia and Houston, he did at least partly enable his successors to get the team to baseball's mountaintop.

[Austinfan]

What Houston shows is you need developmental "luck" and good trades.
Phillies have actually done a good job of getting talent out of trading veterans, not as much or as fast if they had started after the 2012 season, still a deep stable of young starting pitcher prospects.
Altuve is the kind of luck you need, $10K signing was no different than all those guys Sal signs, you hope you hit on a couple lottery tickets.

Houston actually didn't draft well, outside of Correa (#1-2012), Springer (#11-2011), Bregman (#2-2015). McCullers (#41-2012) and Fisher (#37-2014) they didn't hit on a lot of draft picks. Not much from rds 2-8. It was three picks in 2011-12 that set the stage for 2017. It takes time from the draft to the ring.
Kuechel was 7th rd (2009).
Nor did they sign a lot of LA players, Altuve, Feliz, Martes and Gurriel as a 32 year old Cuban
Josh Reddick, 4yr/$52M is their only "major" free agent, they traded for Verlander, but only have 2 years of exposure.
Most of this team was built on trades, which is why I don't think they're a potential dynasty, McCan (33), Gurriel (33), Aoki (35), Reddick (30), Beltran (40), Fiers (32), Morton (33), Gregerson (33), Harris (32) - while they have a solid young core, they also have a lot of age on this roster.

Lessons learned?
1) good trades, especially for other teams' prospects which they undervalue
2) get lucky, find some hidden gems (Sixto? Kilome?)
3) be patient and build the core

One advantage Phillies have is better drafting, Altherr (8th rd), Hoskins (5th rd), Kingery (2nd rd), Herrera (Rule 5), they're not dependent on just 1st rd picks in their rebuild.