Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[jimbomill]

you don't bring in a Dombrowski if you don't intend to win and he doesn't come if you are looking to rebuild.

in my book, that's the exact truth. DD wasn't going to go anywhere that had a onerous budget of the wrong oversight. I too am optimistic with this hire.

[allentown]

If the Phils were interested in treading water they would have simply hired Hill, a solid choice but oh so vanilla in terms of seismic shock.

I'm not sure what this means, in this context, but if it means what I think is intended, then I disagree. I see Hill as more forward-looking and potentially innovative and Dombrowski as the plain-vanilla, waning-years-of-his-career, old-school, plain-vanilla guy. That doesn't mean I see Dombrowski as a poor choice -- he's likely the best we can expect our owners to accept. He has a long record. We can expect him not to do a poor job. I don't expect him to shake things up greatly or leave us with a modern organization in his wake, as a Hill might. The plus for we fans is that he is just the sort of guy to shake more $ out of ownership this year than Hill would have been able to achieve. That ups the odds of keeping JT.

I don't at all understand how you think we are now the guys co-favored to win. I think despite whatever Dombrowski does that we are very definitely below the Braves in likelihood to win the NL East. In my ranking, we are also behind the Mets, but to a significantly lesser degree.

It won't happen, at least not for this season, but I prefer to see Dombrowski paired with a modern GM.

I am not thrilled by Dombrowski's comment that he is going to move slowly in making organizational changes. I'd like to stick with Driveline and give them a fair chance to make our development side better. Our international side needs major change yesterday, before even more opportunities are missed. Too many recent changes to touch the development side or much of the MLB field staff this season, but the problems on the international side are too serious to wait.

I don't see Dombrowski as a seismic shock. Competent, where Klentak was not and certainly not a callow fad chaser, but other than on the PR side, he is no seismic shock. And I'm not saying Dombrowski is less talented than Gillick -- it is a difference in the organizations they inherited. The Phillies organization which Gillick joined had plus MLB talent and should have been more successful than they had been, based on that talent. They just needed a push over the top. They also had more talent in the near pipeline. They were an organization that had and was developing an impressive collection of home-grown MLB talent. The current Phillies are nothing like that.

[Austinfan]

Probably the key decision to be made by Dombrowski is the choice of GM, whoever he brings in will sit as his feet for four years before he returns to Nashville. If he brings in a retread lackey, well ...

But ideally he brings in a young, innovative GM to be groomed to replace him, who can counsel him on analytics and new approaches to development - and that would be a hopeful sign.

[allentown]

ideally he brings in a young, innovative GM to be groomed to replace him,

Everything I've read says he's not bringing in a GM, at least this season. I guess that gives Rice the first shot at the role you describe. I know next to nothing about Rice's ability or outlook -- if he even has a baseball philosophy.

[andyb]

That is my take too. It kind of doesn't matter as much who is GM because Dombrowski has clearly implied he is taking over all major baseball decisions. He already has people around to interpret the baseball analytics. Clearly he will need a GM to take over the day to day operations, but big stuff like the overall direction of the roster, philosophy on rebuilding, and how to manage the payroll are with DD.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski was hired to be president in Detroit and then fired the GM and gave himself the job.

Dombrowski was hired to be president in Boston, Cherington quit, Hazen was promoted. But when Hazen left one year later Dombrowski never hired a GM.

I imagine Rice will remain in his position. If he got a raise to take the 'interim' title maybe he gets to keep the raise. They still have to pay all the other guys for two more years. One would hope there are some changes, but nobody seems likely to get the title or salary that comes with "general manager," and there certainly won't be a hiring search. They filled both jobs, for all intents and purposes. I also don't think we can assume Dombrowski intends to only stay until Nashville calls him back. He probably isn't even allowed to speak to them. Ideally he is successful and could be President for seven-eight years, even if he does bring on a GM too. If he's only here for three it's not gonna be because he won a ring.

Phillies Hire Dave Dombrowski as President

With regard to a fear of making the team older and more expensive: that is easily accomplished by trading minor leaguers and young vets for established veterans, but much less for FA signings, since most FA signings (unlike the monster Harper deal), especially in the current climate, only effect 1-3 years (a JT signing, which I don't expect, more likely 4-5 years).. In any case, I think immediate damage of this sort is less likely and less severe since Covid has our 2021 budget and the lux cap ceiling $20-25 lower that it is likely to be in 2022, leaving a good deal of space.

I think the people who believe Dombrowski will increase the Phillies' willingness/ability to spend money are just wishing (not you). Their only hope is that the market is depressed enough that there's enough to go around at a decreased (but still high) level of spending. But I also think he will trade minor leaguers and young vets for established veterans. Not a ton of them, and hopefully it will be mitigated by moving Segura. But I reckon at least one of the below won't be in the organization on Opening Day (in order of likelihood)

Moniak (obviously also not a huge loss)
Haseley
Quinn
Stott
Kingery
Hoskins

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...please re-read my post. I never proclaimed that with the hiring of DD the Phils were suddenly Kings of the East. I didn't even imply it. The last time I looked he couldn't pitch or catch and the Phils are in healthy need of both, I understand that.

What I said, and somewhat emphatically, was that I believe the hiring makes the Phils relevant again and back in the dance. And I think that both statements are pretty hard to deny. The Phils of 5 days ago were not only not relevant but almost seemed as if they wanted it that way. Look, I still rank the Phils as a 4th place team right now, sans JT and Didi, but even Dombrowski's biggest detractors are convinced he will turn this franchise around in short order and why is that such a bad thing? This franchise has been wandering in the wilderness for 9 years and I honestly don't believe the phans are ready for a long term vision right now, they want the team to win.

This move seems similar to the hiring of Gillick and while this team isn't as young as that team was, I am not sure its any worse [if they re-sign JT.] If you recall the 2006 team was abysmal till Gillick moved some pieces and turned the keys over to Hamels, Utley, Howard and Rollins. And from that time till Howard tore his Achillies Heel and Halladay injured his shoulder the team was at worst relevant and at best, the best.

I think DD has a more than decent enough resume to indicate he is capable of the same. And as a long suffering Phillies phan, I don't see that as a bad thing.

[zambonir]

At least now, a few months removed from the recurring bullpen nightmare, Girardi can laugh about it.

“I really believe that we could have told the hitters what was coming and it wouldn’t have turned out as bad as it did,” Girardi said. “I really do.”

Phillies focused on depth to rebuild their bullpen from the ashes of 2020

[David_Criss]

Joe Girardi on offseason, more | 12/14/2020

Listening to this, I get the feeling Jean Segura will not be the Phillies SS. Joe mentions the team has Segura on its roster and mentions they need a SS within the same 90-seconds.

[EDmuch]

Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Kingery either.

[andyb]

After last season I don't think you can pencil Kingery into a starting role. He is going to need to earn his playing time. Whether that means a placeholder defensive SS like Galvis in front of him or a full time SS like Didi probably does not matter.

It also means that if we trade Segura we need to acquire or sign both a starting SS and a starting/platooning 2B.

[EDmuch]

Without having sufficient funds, I have no idea how DD can fill all the holes in this franchise

[bigegypt0417]

I can't imagine he came here with the understanding they couldn't spend money.

[andyb]

I just think he was told that the payroll would be more modest this year, at like $180 or $190 million because of the pandemic and cashflow. That is ownership's prerogative of course.

I think we have like $68.5 million of room below the competitive balance threshold assuming normal 40-man roster costs. Here is the Cots page:

Google Sheets

If we are at $180-$190 million we then have $38-$48 million left to spend assuming no subtractions from the current roster like the assumed Velazquez $4.5 million.

Then we probably have to pivot around Realmuto. If Realmuto signs for $25 million AAV I assume we are going to be at the higher $190 million number. That means $23 million to get a shortstop, starting pitcher, backup OF, and 3 or 4 relievers. Pencil in $12 million for the SS and you have 4 or 5 guys signed for $1-$3 million.

In the non-JT scenario we sign a platoon catcher for like $3 million. Then probably have $35-$40 million to spend on everything else.

All this is doable. It is going to be a depressed second tier free agent market out there. There is a pretty good case that there will be significant value in these $3 million signings. I am sure DD knows this. He wants Realmuto, but there is a strategy to stay under budget with multiple low dollar signings no matter what he does. We also can probably get JT on a severely backloaded deal with a higher AAV but a lower current salary. Frankly future AAV is a lesser concern this year because the threshold is going to go up in future collective bargaining deals. We won't approach it this year, so offer JT 5/125 with only $10 million this year. That might get it done.

[Philsmania]

It's also entirely possible that Realmuto simply isn't going to get near what he wants and that his hopes of setting the standard for a catcher have been dashed by the pandemic and other factors. Maybe something not exactly to his liking with an opt-out after two or three years?

[Philsmania]

Phillies interested in JBJ?

What sort of upgrade would Jackie Bradley Jr. be for Phillies?

[zambonir]

I'm sure it will actually be enjoyable for Dombrowski to figure out how to put together a roster with limitations. But the reality is he's still not trying to build an immediate World Series contender. He knew this - and that there'd be payroll cuts - when he took the job. He also can't go on a front office hiring spree after they just laid off so many people - and he knew that too.

A job is still a job, he probably had a six-figure consulting fee with Nashville that didn't turn into real money for several years, now he makes $4 or $5 million a year (maybe more). If Middleton said "I expect you to win a championship but I also expect you to cut payroll" maybe you don't take the job, because that is an unreasonable demand. But that's not where this team is.

If he finds a way to turn Segura's salary into a player who fills a different need (whether straight up or someone cheap accompanied by $ coming back) that would go a long way. And I imagine he'll trade an outfielder if he can/needs to.

[andyb]

JBJ would be a mistake for anything more than a couple million. In 2017-2019 he had consecutive OPS of 726, 717, and 738. In the limited messed up short season of 2020 he was better at 814 but that is a small sample size and he'll be 31 this year. That is the age when his defense will start to slip so one gets an older CF likely to have a 720 OPS that is no longer plus defensively.

I'd prefer sticking with Haseley and Quinn. CF is NOT our problem. We have 5 potential options on the 40-man roster. Haseley, Quinn, Kingery, Moniak, and Muzziotti. Some combination of those players should get us 2+ WAR and be better than JBJ. It is actually the one place where we have high minors organizational depth. I hope DD is smarter than this.

[zambonir]

That fact that DD had JBJ in Boston makes it a bit more likely, unfortunately. Much like Gillick brought in so many of his old faves. I'd prefer a one-year deal of course. But if you sign him for two you are trading one of Haseley, Moniak or Quinn for pitching probably.

But I'm not sure any Phillies GM was going to be content to stand pat in the OF. There's a lot of scenarios where Kingery isn't in the CF mix (i.e. Segura is a SS or they trade Segura), Girardi simply doesn't seem to believe in Haseley, and Quinn remains an unknown over 162 games (plus he isn't even very good overall).

They just have to choose between a LF bat or a CF. If they signed JBJ, Haseley becomes your other LF and Quinn your bench guy. DH situation probably doesn't matter either way - Cutch probably can't start more than 100 games in the field regardless.

[andyb]

The criticism is mainly that JBJ is not that good and he is likely to regress at his age. I am all for bringing in a better CF and rearranging the current pieces. That is not what signing JBJ would do though. We need to get better and younger. JBJ probably does neither.