30 WAR for $300 million.
With the caveat that I’m still pretty dubious about WAR (given its ever-changing formulation, and suspect defensive metrics), that doesn’t seem out of line to me.
Yes, I’ve seen the debates about “how much a WAR is worth.” What is often missing from such debates is the idea that what I would call “WAR concentration” has added value. Rosters are limited in size, and so are lineups. If an “average” WAR is worth, say, $6 million, and a 2-WAR player is “worth” $12 million…a 4-WAR player is worth more than $24 million, because you’re getting that WAR (or any other measure of player productivity) from one roster spot instead of two spots, and roster (or lineup) slots are the limiting factor in total team productivity.
In other words, the “value” of a WAR is not linear; the more WAR that is concentrated in a single player, the higher the value of each of those WAR, because they come with less “roster space” consumed.
So it seems to me that the Turner contract is not an overpay, even if it might seem like an overpay in 2031, if Turner’s productivity at that point has declined.
I think 2023 is going to be fun.
