Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

tom81 2016-12-20 13:44:35 UTC #783

Welcome back CD! It's nice to have such an eloquent voice agreeing with me on the value of a Martinez pickup and wondering about the value of Kendrick in LF. I also think Kinsler is the key. I have not read many Kinsler rumors lately but something involving the Dodgers would make sense. The Dodgers have a glut of OF's and no 2B, something involving Trayce Thompson for Kinsler would look to fit both teams.

I enjoy how Klentak is playing his cards. He covered his glaring holes in the bullpen and while I'm not a Kendrick fan I do appreciate the flexibility his pickup provides. Klentak doesn't need to make any major moves but he appears willing if the price is right. It might be a fun January for us on the board

Carver 2016-12-20 14:08:12 UTC #784

I am not trying to be hard on Rupp - I like him a lot and would have been fairly critical of the front office if they were willing to trade him for anything but a stupidly large return. He really stepped up, and you don't give up a guy that is already a competent starter just because you might have a better one coming along. He showed growth with the bat on his approach and contact rate and if he improves that again he becomes a force for a catcher.

Great arm - no doubt - very average receiver. And so far he just hasn't shown the gift that some catcher's have of working with the pitcher and reading the hitter. Chooch had it for sure; also AJ. Having AJ to backstop him made all sorts of sense for this year's team. Putting Knapp in that position when he has yet to show that he is a solid defensive catcher (nothing against him - he was a late conversion to the position and then lost over a year to TJ surgery as well) in the minors is basically short-arming the situation by the front office.

phillychuck 2016-12-20 14:36:32 UTC #785

I can't seem to find Phillies' pitchers' stats split by catcher for last year. I'd love to do a pitcher-by-pitcher comparison. I know Rupp's CERA was about a half-run higher than Ruiz's overall, but there are a lot of illusions (and small sample effects) on CERA.

Anyone know where this might be available?

flyers19rw 2016-12-20 15:10:51 UTC #786

Knapp is 25 years old with four years of minor league ball under his belt after a good collegiate career. If he's not ready for the show now, he never will be. Having him back up Rupp shouldn't be a problem. Then again, if he or they bomb out, Alfaro isn't more than half of a season away from being ready for the majors. He got a touch of it in September. I don't know where Holaday fits in the mix except as a guy who shares time with Alfaro in LV so that the catchers at lower levels don't need to be pushed too quickly.

Kinsler is due $11M this season and $12M next although there is a $5M buyout on that season. At his age, 34, I don't know how many teams are willing to give up much to obtain him.
If the Tigers can't move Kinsler then obtaining J.D. Martinez becomes more difficult. Since a Hernandez-Martinez deal has no place in the Tiger's lineup for Cesar.
The Phillies might be better off trying to move CH to the Dodgers themselves.

tom81 2016-12-20 16:13:14 UTC #787

Kinsler may be 34 but he is coming off a 6 WAR season. I for one would not expect him to fall off a cliff and to be a tremendous bargain the next two years, especially for a large market team like the Dodgers who want to win now. I too see that the Dodgers would probably have interest in CH, I'm sure Klentak is floating deals with them too.

julio 2016-12-20 16:18:52 UTC #788

2 posts were split to a new topic: Phils Trade for Clay Buchholz

julio 2016-12-21 13:42:40 UTC #789

The New York Post (Joel Sherman) has an article up on the Phillies' off-season moves/strategy:

Squire 2016-12-21 13:48:43 UTC #790

Yeah I read that Sherman piece. Disagreed with the notion that if you don't throw huge money around on UFAs that you are somehow "tanking" but otherwise thought it was a decent article. Also disagree that Buchholz is not blocking a prospect. I mean he is. He's blocking Eflin, Thompson, Asher, etc. I'm OK with that because I see what they are doing but Buchholz is blocking a prospect right now.

julio 2016-12-21 14:06:53 UTC #791

If Zach Eflin (or Thompson, or Asher, etc.) is dominant in the spring, and in the early going in Lehigh Valley (where they're probably headed), and Buchholz is "meh," we could see Buchholz moved to the 'pen (as he was in 2016 by the Sox)? There, he would be "blocking" the likes of Severino Gonzalez.

If Buchholz is sharp, he'll likely be traded. If he's not sharp, he'll eat innings, until one of the prospects takes his rotation slot away. The real uncertainty is whether Mackanin will move Buchholz to the 'pen in favor of one of the kids, if he's mediocre, and one of the prospects forces the issue.

But I have no problem having him here; I have no problem with an Eflin (or U-pick-em) having to take the starting job away, rather than seeing one or more of these kids just dropped into the rotation.

andyb 2016-12-21 14:26:07 UTC #792

Fundamentally the Buchholz move is using money to get prospects. Much more than Kendrick which was about plugging a hole. The risk with Buchholz (as with any move in baseball) is that it is only 50-50 to get real prospects. Kind of like Hellickson and Morton last year when we went 50-50 on those moves even if we chose to not trade Hellickson.

As for blocking prospects that is less important to me. Eflin and Thompson will get their chances over the course of the season and it is not as if either performed well enough to pencil them into the lineup. Eflin also might fit a bullpen profile pretty well and it would be fascinating if our manager learned from the postseason that a hard throwing multiple inning reliever can have huge value. Not arguing that Eflin is Miller (they are very different stylistically and Eflin does not strike out hitters). But he is big and strong and maybe he is durable enough to throw 2 innings every 2-3 days. I love the concept of bullpen arms appearing in 50-60 games for 80-90 innings rather than 75 games for 70 innings. A team needs fewer bullpen pitchers with this strategy and potentially there would be fewer injuries if pitchers do not pitch 3 times a week and warm up even more.

Blocking prospects is less of an issue with 2nd tier prospects which is what we have. Crawford is about the only high minors guy we have that really should not be blocked. Even Alfaro needs to take a step forward to be put in that category. This is not to say we should not on occasion give kids a job, but if there is a 50-50 chance that Buchholz gives us a half season of work and returns 1 or 2 top 10 prospects when we pick up most of his contract - that is a good thing.

julio 2016-12-21 14:53:27 UTC #793

David Murphy on the starting pitching situation:

And Buster Olney on the Phils off-season strategy (ESPN Insider article):

Slinging_Southpaw 2016-12-21 18:00:54 UTC #794

I wouldn't get too wound up or think that anything for this team is chiseled in stone on December 21st. If we could get a significantly better return on Buchholz and/or Kendricks than what we gave up for them(Ruf/Sweeney/Tobias(more value if we eat their contracts?)) just by sitting back and watching to see how the off-season unfolds, it wouldn't surprise me to see neither one of them in a Phillies uniform past Spring Training.

Carver 2016-12-21 18:59:57 UTC #795

Very strongly in agreement with you on this - the term "blocking prospects" is thrown around like penny candy, and the assumption seems to be that all prospects need to have a clear path to a position, which means that the major league club needs to suffer for that privilege.

You are right - JP is the only position player that fits the profile, and he is not blocked as they weren't out there looking to sign a Tulo-type to a long term deal. Alfaro is top tier, but will have to earn the job over Rupp when the time is ripe. The rest are just a bunch of Schrodinger's cats...let's see what happens with their development this year before we anoint anyone, and if the Phils had signed or traded for a top shelf corner outfielder for the long haul I would have been all for it. Prospects need to earn their way into the mix, and if we have a glut that is a great thing for the team and not a troubling one.

Buchholz is a tweener for me - he actually IS blocking guys that are already there; the only way that the trade works given their current strategy is if the win for a deadline deal is big...not just another couple of B- or C+ prospects to add to the inventory.

LoneStarPhan 2016-12-21 20:38:54 UTC #796

Fourth time Rollins has been claimed on waivers this off season. Finished the season with the Mariners and has subsequently been claimed by the Cubs, Rangers, Phillies, and now the Rangers again.

RTaylor 2016-12-21 21:55:23 UTC #797

Austinfan 2016-12-21 22:09:20 UTC #798

Phillies have a bunch of veterans on one year deals that only cost money in a year when they have no salaries (and the same will probably be true next year).
Since they gave up nothing of value for these guys (as pointed out, Ruf, Sweeney, Tobias and waived some marginal players who were claimed), anything they get in trades is a plus.
It won't hurt young pitchers to pitch in Lehigh for 3 months and work on mechanics and secondary stuff in low pressure situations, whereas hitters have to adjust to ML pitchers, for pitchers it's more about perfecting your stuff, when a pitcher is "on" very few hitters have a chance.

allentown 2016-12-21 22:56:14 UTC #799

I don't disagree with any of this, although I'd have liked to see us add someone who can be good for multiple years. I'm still a bit surprised to hear you say that we didn't give up anything of value (I agree we didn't), since you were Tobias's biggest booster this summer and just about the only poster seeing him as a potential MLB starting 2B and better than Kingery.

Austinfan 2016-12-22 04:15:24 UTC #800

Huh? I thought Tobias was a better pure hitter than Kingery, he was in college as well, but he lacks a position, what is good hitting for 2B is meh in LF as we've seen with some other IF prospects who couldn't field well enough to stay there (Pullin).
I had Tobias at #71 for that reason, I think they held him back too much for his age, but it may have been to try to teach him to field.
His future is probably as a utility IF/OF/PH type at best.

andyb 2016-12-22 14:05:05 UTC #801

Nobody had Tobias ranked anywhere near the top 30. He was more an advanced hitter than a pure hitter (whatever that means). Kingery is just as pure a hitter as Tobias was. He was just a couple of years younger, better defensively at the same position, and a better athlete with superior tools that have a chance to advance beyond where Tobias might.

All those are calculation that diminish Tobias' value. He is not good enough defensively at any position where his offense (which is not bad potentially for a middle infielder) might play. FWIW there are more AL fits for a guy like that with the DH in play, though I doubt that factored much in Boston's conclusions. This was a salary dump plain and simple and Boston needed a prospect with a non-zero chance of making the majors. We gave them one that is behind 2 other guys at higher levels who are better prospects and younger at the same time (Kingery and Valentin). And we have someone like Brito behind Tobias as well. So little cost to the Phillies because it is a fairly deep position and some face-saving for Boston since Tobias can hit a little bit.

Squire 2016-12-23 18:54:41 UTC #802

Reds claimed OF/3B Richie Shaffer off waivers from the Phillies