Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[Austinfan]

The only OF that I'd think about keeping is Pullin, if he tears up ST.

Quinn needs PA in AAA ball, Cozens has to learn to hit curves and LHP, Goeddel needs a year in AAA, Wiliams needs to get his head together.
Pullin might make sense b/c it's going to be crowded in AAA ball, and his future is probably a bench player anyway.
And as a switch hitter he has value off the bench.

[miker]

Pullin is a lefty. Does not switch hit.

[andyb]

If they keep Coghlan there really is not a great place on the roster for Pullin unfortunately though I guess if Coghlan can be the backup 3B there is a little more freedom in who you get for the 25th spot.

I'd be happy if Stassi wins the job. Don't think he is that good but it does not really matter that much when we could have several people from LHV pushing for jobs in 2-3 months (Quinn, Williams, Crawford are all very close).

The other thought with guys like Knapp and Pullin is that maybe all they ever will be are backups. If they are ready to contribute on the bench now it may not be that important to get them regular at bats. Same with Stassi. Maybe they only develop into 95% of what they might develop into if they are forced into early bench roles, but that is kind of OK if they serve a need now and will never be full time starters. I have less worries about Altherr. Given that we have only 2 decent defensive outfielders (Herrera and Altherr), I think Altherr starts 80 games in almost any scenario and probably comes in the game in the 7th on a double switch in many more. He could easily get 400 plate appearances if he plays well even in a bench role. The 25th guy probably only gets 200 plate appearances, but that is OK since they are basically a placeholder till one of the kids comes up.

[Austinfan]

A bigger issue is the logjam at pitching in AAA.
Right now, barring injury, Nola, Eickhoff, Velasquez, Hellickson, Buchholtz is your starting rotation.
I don't think they're going to move the young starters to the bullpen right now, given Benoit, Gomez, Neris, Ramos, Rodriquez, Neshak and Garcia.
Plus they still have Mariot, Murray and Hinojosa, and Aruno should start the season at Lehigh.

Lehigh SP: Eflin, Thompson, Asher, Appel, Pivetta, Lively and Morgan, the only lefty
Pinto and Viza may repeat at Reading with Eshelman, E Garcia, Anderson, Richy and Leiter

[allentown]

I think Pinto and Viza do repeat at Reading, barring great ST on their part or injury to other starters. I think Lively, Richy, and now I've forgotten the third guy, are future relievers, who might as well move to the pen now.

[allentown]

Third guy is Leiter.

[BtownFan]

Lehigh SP: Eflin, Thompson, Asher, Appel, Pivetta, Lively and Morgan, the only leftyPinto and Viza may repeat at Reading with Eshelman, E Garcia, Anderson, Richy and Leiter

Read something somewhere suggesting Morgan and/or Ascher as possible long relievers in MLB...maybe someone here

[allentown]

If Williams shows in ST that he's put his end-of-season woes behind him, I could see him coming north with the Phillies as a starting OF.

[andyb]

If Williams shows in ST that he's put his end-of-season woes behind him, I could see him coming north with the Phillies as a starting OF.

I think they want him to get 50 games in AAA regardless. But I do agree that he could move quickly and force a trade of either Kendrick or Saunders at the right time. And sometimes guys with his raw talent suddenly click the second time through. It was a little notable they did not have him go to the Dominican so they must have had him working on certain things. He really does have a great hit tool and that can go a long way with even nominal improvements on his approach and pitch recognition.

There is too much talk of Kendrick being a "professional hitter" that they are not going to give him some rope though at this point I really think the team regrets getting him a bit. I don't think they thought they were going to have someone like Saunders fall in their lap later in the offseason.

[Austinfan]

I don't see Lively as a RP, PIvetta is more likely because he has the live arm that could play up in the pen, but they'll wait to see if he develops a couple secondary pitches before they move him (letting a guy start allows him more innings to work on pitches before you move him to the pen).
I can't see Asher in the pen, unless he adds a lot of velocity so long relief would be his role, and you might as well start him and hope to pump up his trade value as a potential #4/#5.
Leiter is definitely a RP candidate.

Morgan as a LOOGY? Not sure if he has that kind of stuff.

The Lehigh pen looks a bit thin unless some of the camp invites accept jobs down there to try to make it back to the Show.
Reading however should have a bunch of live arms in their pen.

Of course with young pitchers, arm trouble is almost inevitable, and a surplus can quickly dissipate.

[flyers19rw]

Thoughts on Asher as a RP, even a potential closer?

[allentown]

I don't think he has enough stuff to close. His K rates aren't that good. His WHIP has been excellent. I would still keep him as a starter. If he goes to the pen, I think his future is not as a closer.

Asher is a guy who has consistently had a significantly lower K rate with the Phillies than he did in the Astros organization. Probably a change of approach.

[Austinfan]

Asher had relied on a 4 seamer at 91-95 which got pounded in the majors.
Came back last year with a deceptive 2 seamer at 87-89 which was unhittable.
I think he needs to get the 2 seamer to 90-91, mix in a high K zone 4 seamer at 95 as a "show me" pitch and refine those secondary pitches.
As Nola showed, if you can throw a 2 seamer with movement to spots, you don't have to throw it that hard.
I posted a FB study that showed velocity really doesn't matter if you can hit the bottom of the K zone and the outside edge of the plate consistently, but if you can't, you'd better throw 95 MPH.

I think the Phillies have a similar idea with Appel, who was dominant in college with a two seamer, then struggled when the Astros tried to get him to go just with a 4 seamer to increase velocity.
Phillies were trying to get him back to his 2 seamer when he got injured, at 91-93 it could be his base pitch.

[andyb]

Asher will probably not start in the rotation in LHV because better prospects are ahead of him. Morgan also. Each of them may face a career choice to remake themselves into relievers as their best path to make the majors. For Asher that is probably becoming a Chad Durbin/Jeanmar Gomez type capable of pitching 2 innings. Morgan has more choices as a left-handed reliever but again the ability to go 2 innings is underrated. There is nothing that would prevent Morgan from being a pure LOOGY as well. His stuff will play up in shorter outings like most pitchers.

If I were the Phillies I keep Eflin and Thompson active as my 6th and 7th starters for the major league club. I am divided on Appel since I think his stuff would make a great closer if he could learn to pitch effectively out of the stretch. But for now he is in the LHV rotation. Lively is probably in the rotation also as the most ready for the majors prospect and he might even be better than Thompson if there is an immediate major league need (after Eflin).

Beyond that the 5th starter does not matter too much. I am fine if Pivetta or Pinto or Viza wins the job. It is just not that important for guys like Asher and Morgan and Lively to start. They probably all end up in relief of flipped in minor trades. I like Pivetta the best out of all the potential prospects and while he also may end up in short relief, the quality of his stuff probably gives him more starting shots than Asher or Morgan.

There is no shame in being a major league relief pitcher. Most of them were starters at some point anyway.

[bkeich]

So you have 5 starters in MLB and 6 in AAA. That isn't a problem, there probably won't be many (any?) days that at least 1 of those 11 are not available due to injury.

[allentown]

And there certainly will be contenders in need of a starter as the season progresses.

[Austinfan]

Not every pitcher jumps up in velocity out of the pen, and some struggle because as starters they can get into a rhythm and mix up their pitches, as a RP they have to come in cold and usually rely on two pitches - and if they don't have two plus pitches may have a problem.
The pitchers who seem to make the transition tend to have a FB that jumps in the bullpen and one other pitch, usually a slider, that can work off that fastball.
Asher is ahead of Lively since he finished the year strong in the majors after being lights out at Lehigh, 9 starts between the two, 57 IP, 37 hits allowed.
Lively's stuff is more likely to play up out of the pen than Asher.

Morgan will depend on ST, last year he regained his velocity after his shoulder injury but struggled with command. He has three decent secondary pitches, so it's worth watching whether he ticks up a little and has more command this year. After all, he is a LHP.

[zambonir]

I think Morgan's gone if he doesn't make the major leagues as a reliever. Minor trade or released.

It also wouldn't surprise me if the answer to the last bench spot turns out to be a player from another organization rather than Nava, Stassi or Gomez et al. Maybe another team needs more pitching and has a LH hitter they don't figure to get through waivers.

[andyb]

Lively's stuff is more likely to play up out of the pen than Asher.

And why is that? No reason Asher's velocity won't jump a couple mph like any pitcher. And frankly he needs to miss more bats to be seen as a serious pitching prospect, starting or relieving. Yes he changed his approach a bit, but I have really seen nothing to suggest he can consistently get major league hitters out. RIght now he is a small sample size phenomenon that had success against weaker September lineups.

Both Asher and Morgan are good candidates for bullpen conversions and that might be the role where they can be most valuable to the Phillies for both of them.

[zambonir]

RIght now he is a small sample size phenomenon that had success against weaker September lineups.

Not to mention he pitched in 2015. And had the suspension. I don't think he'd be an important part of the pen for the moment, but that might be where they stash him until someone goes down (at which point he could be that starter, or he could switch places with Thompson or Eflin and go back to starting (and then assuming there are trade deadline moves there will be plenty more chances).