Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

julio 2016-12-23 02:36:03 UTC #26

With Encarnacion signing with the Indians, Cleveland forfeits their first-round pick, which stood at #25 (after the Rockies' and Cardinals' forfeits). The worst-case for the Phils' #2 pick is now #47 (if Trumbo and Bautista are both signed, by either the Brewers or Angels - two more comp picks are added, but no additional forfeits prior to our 2nd pick). #45 is more likely.

ZardozMD 2016-12-23 12:55:36 UTC #27

Why does Cleveland have to give up their first round pic? How does that rule work?

kmc1019 2016-12-23 13:44:48 UTC #28

It's a long-standing rule that teams finishing outside of bottom 10 or 11 forfeit their first round pick if they sign a Type A (I think that's the term) free agent.

ZardozMD 2016-12-23 14:11:52 UTC #29

Okay, then what would qualify as a 'Type A' free agent?

andyb 2016-12-23 14:51:48 UTC #30

It is not type A and type B any more which was calculated with a complicated formula for performance by position. It is only about whether the player merits a qualifying offer. This is the last year under the old system but the new system retains the QO but with some wrinkles (like if the free agent signs a $50 million plus contract).

julio 2016-12-23 15:19:50 UTC #31

andyb's right here. The current system (soon to be changed):

IF a free agent receives a "qualifying offer" from his old team, and if he declines that offer, his old team gets a compensatory draft pick after the first round in next summer's draft; if the player signs with a different team, the team signing him forfeits a draft pick. If the signing team is drafting in the top 10 picks, they don't forfeit that pick, but rather their second pick. (Note: their second pick, but not necessarily their second-round pick - whatever their second pick is.) Teams who are drafting later than the top ten picks forfeit their first pick.

The "qualifying offer" is a fixed, one-year salary offer, that's calculated by MLB as the average of the top 125 salaries in the game. This winter, it was $17.2 million. (It will be higher next winter.)

The changes under the new CBA (effective next winter, and in the 2018 draft) have to do with when a team losing a "qualified" free agent gets a comp pick, and what pick(s) a signing team forfeits. It's complicated - see the MLB CBA thread. Most significantly, no signing team will ever lose their first-round pick.

zambonir 2016-12-23 20:23:45 UTC #32

There were 10 players who received qualifying offers this year. Two accepted them.

Going back some years, did the team losing a free agent ever receive the actual pick of the team signing the free agent?

allentown 2016-12-23 20:53:26 UTC #33

Yes, that's the way it used to work and the reason som1e teams losing a FA were ill-treated when the team that signed their guy signed a couple of other guys. FAs were ranked back then. If a team signed 3 comp FAs and was bottom 15 (I think it was 15, not 10 originally) then the signing team's #1 was projected, the team with the highest value FA got their actual 2nd round pick, the next team got their #3, and one team was left with the 4th rounder.

julio 2017-01-17 21:15:38 UTC #34

With Joey Bats returning to Toronto, the Phils' second-round pick will now be either #45 overall (very likely) or #46 (if Mark Trumbo signs with either the Brewers or the Angels).

Squire 2017-01-18 16:55:04 UTC #35

I tend to shift back and forth on this issue over the years but picking 8 and having the kind of depth that the Phillies have in their system overall, I'd be inclined to take the highest ceiling kid at #8 as possible and not worry about floor at all. If that's Jordan Adell, great.

julio 2017-01-18 17:35:58 UTC #36

With the caveat that "highest ceiling, without worrying about floor" still excludes the "toolsy" high school kid from a little HS in Podunk, who's never played against real competition and has tools, but hasn't developed skills? In other words, no Jeff Jacksons, no Anthony Hewitts? "Highest ceiling," IMHO, shouldn't include guys whose ceiling includes "if he can learn to play baseball..."

Jordan Adell reportedly has a "hit tool," which implies that maybe he can already play baseball. He's toolsy, but doesn't look like a "very high ceiling, but floor is A-ball" type. I'd be OK with that.

Austinfan 2017-01-18 17:47:42 UTC #37

One thing to consider is the large LA haul, while they didn't get the premier guys, they got 5-6 of the top 50 and a large number of other signings.
This would suggest to me that they've filled many of the slots the next two years (b/c LA players tend to either start at GCL or spend a year in LA summer ball) that normally go to HS players drafted after the first 3 rounds (basically longshots).

That could mean they may skew more toward college players (juniors, CC) on the margin.

Phils2020 2017-01-18 18:27:17 UTC #38

Who thinks its a good idea to draft another outfielder or just pick the next available player? I see Jordan Adell at a few spots in a few mock drafts. Saw him as high as 5 in one but then around 11.

bkeich 2017-01-18 18:32:47 UTC #39

Some of this rash of signings may just be to fill the beds in the shiny new DR Academy I would think. I would guess most of the younger signings of guys in DR will be there, possibly for a couple years.

bkeich 2017-01-18 18:35:08 UTC #40

To me when you are picking the first round pick in Baseball you always go best available (with modifiers for signability, etc.). The guy we pick at #8 is a guy we think of as a future cornerstone of the franchise, and since we have 0 players currently blocking any position (except maybe SS) I would say you just go with the player you think will give you the most and pay no real attention to position as this player should beat out anyone in his way.

Austinfan 2017-01-18 18:38:02 UTC #41

The new academy is also for the Venezuelan players (and other SA like the Columbian pitchers they just signed).
Venezuela is a horrible mess, and they're trying to get the players out of there as much as possible.
They've always had two teams in the summer leagues, so it's a lateral move more than an expansion.

Phils2020 2017-01-18 18:55:20 UTC #42

Good point. I'm back to saying lets go with the best player available on the board.

andyb 2017-01-18 20:57:18 UTC #43

FWIW we did not get 5 or 6 of the top 50 internationally. More like 1 Top 20 guy, another in the 20-30 range, then 3 or 4 more in the top 100 (not 50). We had depth but less high ceiling talents. The top 4 guys we signed were 12 (Morales), 19 (Gonzalez), 45 (Torres), and 47 (Aparicio) in a ranking without any Cubans. Realistically they are more like 20,30, 60, and 65. And a couple other guys (Tortolero, Muzzioti) are top 100. We only got our top 2 on Fangraphs top 47.

I would be on board with going with ceiling at number 8 unless there is a Nola type arm that could move really quickly. There usually are not too many of those college players that can be up in a year though (maybe a closer is more likely), so going high ceiling given our depth in mid-level prospects is probably the right call.

flyers19rw 2017-01-19 02:12:17 UTC #44

While supporting the concept of BPA, all things considered, the Phillies don't seem to have a top of the rotation pitcher or front of the rotation lefty that is close to being ready to step into the game. If one of these highly rated collegiate SPs can fill that bill, it would be hard to pass him by in the June draft.

allentown 2017-01-19 02:36:25 UTC #45

There is merit in that suggestion. Also, I think it a serious mistake to confuse highest ceiling available with BPA. The highest ceiling is frequently a H.S. kid, whose ceiling is astronomical because actual knowledge about what he will actually turn into as a professional is so meager, while some of the negatives of the college kids have been exposed against quality competition. If you can sign a Moniak, you draft him, but we have failed on so many high ceiling H.S. kids in trying to hit the lottery on the high ceiling first rounder. It's easy to say 'don't take a Jeff Jackson, or Hewitt, or LGJ, but these are precisely the kids who our scouts defined as high ceiling and the pitfalls didn't become obvious until later. It is certainly better to draft from a baseball hotspot with a long H.S. season, better to draft a position player with hit tool rather than speed and athleticism or raw power as the super tool, better to take a pitcher who shows some control to go with blowing out the radar gun, but except for the best, who are often gone by #8, it remains a gamble. BPA is a far superior criterion than highest ceiling, since it gives more than a passing nod at the probability of approaching that ceiling.