July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[Austinfan]

If the Phillies extend Realmuto, they can afford maybe ONE top tier FA this winter with the $26M freed up by Hunter/Neshek/Nicasio.
Then when Arrieta leaves, another slot opens but they'll have to make a decision on Rhys in two years or so.

Harper $26M, Arrieta $25M, Realmuto $20M, Cutch $17M, Segura $15M, Nola $9M, Robertson $10M.
$122M right there.
If you move out Herrera, Hernandez and Franco, you free up $17M. But you need to replace them. As well as the veterans in the bullpen.

[kmc1019]

Painful irony - and I love having Realmuto - is that, barring that trade or if the Phillies could have convinced the Marlins to accept Medina instead - Sixto Sanchez would likely be called up by the Phillies to bolster the drive for a playoff spot. He has pitched well at AA all year, but has started to dominate this month - 1 ER in last 3 starts.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't worry about inflation given what's happened to the FA market in the last two years. He's only gonna make like $10 million next year if he doesn't do an extension so this is a situation where the player gives a discount in exchange for the guaranteed $ and security (just like Nola did, albeit for less of his FA years). If not, let him risk hitting the open market with a QO, that didn't work out too well for Grandal (or Ramos who didn't even have a QO).

[andyb]

They could go over the luxury tax line (more for a next year strategy rather than this year). No law against that and the consequences are only money if you don't go too far over. One would not want to do it with long contracts, but taking on money on shorter contracts (like Grienke) is still something they could do if they thought they needed to.

[bigegypt0417]

If the Phillies extend Realmuto, they can afford maybe ONE top tier FA this winter with the $26M freed up by Hunter/Neshek/Nicasio.
Then when Arrieta leaves, another slot opens but they'll have to make a decision on Rhys in two years or so.

They need one top tier free agent as long as it's a starter.

Then they need to find another mid-level guy.

[julio]

Minor League Games - Monday, July 29, 2019

I hadn't thought about that implication - if you DFA someone in August now they either have to be claimed or will more easily go to the minors, assuming they can't/don't refuse. Also, there's still nothing stopping teams from DFAing anyone, and they are still revocable, right? A very unlikely scenario but in theory the Dbacks could put Greinke on if they don't trade him and see if anyone wants to take all of the $. Except that unlike August "trade waivers" any move would also be annnounced.

Now, this is an interesting point.

First... Unless I'm mistaken, a DFA is not revocable. (Think about it; teams would routinely DFA somebody to clear a roster spot, then "un-DFA" the player later - it would be widely abused.) Revocable waivers generally apply only to trade waivers - which are moot now, given the prohibition on waiver trades.

The elimination of any trades after July 31 does impact DFAs in August/September, though, because clubs won't have the option of trading a DFA'ed player... although I'm not certain about the impact of the trade deadline on purely minor-league transactions? I assume minor-league trades are prohibited, but I'd want to check (and we're getting ready to leave on a short vacation, so I won't be doing that kind of research until this evening at the earliest...).

[bigegypt0417]

unless i'm reading it wrong the significant penalty starts at 40 million over when your first picks drops 10 spots.

The phillies have more than enough money to make that work 1 or 2 years.

[andyb]

Yeah. You do pay a higher repeater tax rate, so the goal would be to only stay over for a short time.

This year we are not close enough to the division title to justify it. Maybe even next year they plan free agency to stay below the line. But at some point if there is a Verlander type out there and you are competing for the division, I think Middleton would OK going over the line. Futhermore I would not be shocked if that luxury tax line goes up $20-$30 million in the next agreement. One of the issues with the current labor agreement is that it did not go up anywhere near as quickly as revenues and profits increased. So the Phillies could go over, and suddenly be under when the next agreement kicked in.

[bigegypt0417]

Does Gerrit Cole fit that bill?

Maybe a Cole and a lower tier guy like Kyle Gibson?

then we need one/two of the group of young starters to step up...

[julio]

Following up on my last (the wife has found "one more thing" that she needs to do before we leave...):

The 2019 MLB Rules eliminated Trade Assignment Waivers completely. There are now two types of waivers (Unconditional Release and Outright Assignment). Both are always irrevocable. See Rule 10. So a DFA'ed player, after July 31st, must be put on irrevocable waivers (can't be traded).

There is this, however. I've seen nothing in the Rules, nor in the MLB/MLBPA press release from March, concerning minor-league (players not on 40-man roster) trades after July 31st. If these are allowable, one could envision a player being outrighted by Team A, traded as a non-roster player to Team B, and then selected by Team B. I would like to think this is not allowable - but if they didn't address it, some clubs will probably try it.

[baseballoldie]

As they should if it is an available move.

[andyb]

Here is the MLB rumors top 75 trade candidates (version 3). Not based on skill but looks to be some combination of impact and likelihood to get dealt:

Top 75 Trade Candidates At The Deadline

[zambonir]

But most of the players who would have previously been traded in August can likely refuse a minor league assignment in August, I'd think.

Otherwise, I think the loophole you've found seems perfectly reasonable/unlikely. Because if the player has any value he wouldn't clear waivers (and therefore would never come off the 40 or go to the minors) in the first place).

If Rios ends up back on the Allentown roster and the Phillies want to trade him on August 2, why not? If they wind up outrighting Austin Davis and the Yankees (who would be way down the claiming pecking order) want him he will either fall to them or he won't, a back-door trade won't work if another team claims him and is unnecessary if another team doesn't.

Conversely, if the DBacks outrighted Greinke to see if anyone claimed his salary, and no one did, he'd refuse his assignment to the minors, Arizona would still be on the hook for all the money and couldn't trade him, and then Greinke could sign with any team he wanted. So, no angle there.

[andyb]

Trades would clearly be against the spirit of the new rules, though I imagine there will be some players with expensive contracts that get waived (and then either get claimed or become free agents when they pass through waivers).

I think trading a minor league player off the 40-man (like Rios potentially) would not be allowed. That would open the door to other prospect off-the-40 trades. Not sure there is a huge benefit to teams trying these deals also. There is no urgency for prospect for prospect trades. And there is no urgency for trades of minor leaguers (like a Gosselin who might help somebody).

[andyb]

Cot's has been updated to include Vargas though it looks like his deal has zero impact on our AAV calculation with us being $16.5 million under at the moment.

That is actually a fair amount of room to add salary if they choose to with a little more than a third of the season remaining.

Google Sheets

[zambonir]

I think trading a minor league player off the 40-man (like Rios potentially) would not be allowed.

Right but Rios is no longer on the 40. He's in roster limbo. Come August you couldn't trade a player prior to outrighting but once he's outrighted and in AAA he's no different than a guy who's never been on the 40 (whether young or an AAAA free agent type).

Rios can still be traded now of course. I mean, he'll be traded the same way James Pazos was traded, nothing special. Or maybe he gets thrown into another deal. The difference is the Phillies still have choices while he's DFA'ed. Starting at 4pm tomorrow there is no DFA delay/choice, just immediately outrighting or releasing.

[andyb]

Right but Rios is no longer on the 40. He's in roster limbo.

Limbo would be the wrong word. He would still be part of the Phillies' organization if he were not allowed to elect free agency. If he were a free agent he could go anywhere. Many trades though involve players who are not on the 40-man roster. You seem to be setting up a plausibility that someone like Bohm who is not on the 40-man roster could be traded which I am sure is not true even if the rule's details might need further clarification from what has been publicly released.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/trade-deadline

[Taudawg]

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1156283074369458176

The biggest challenge for the Phillies is to make an impact move without giving up good prospects. So many contenders left needing a piece or two.

[Taudawg]

Phillies To Sign Blake Parker

[zambonir]

Well yeah we're just going on what's publicly available that you and Julio found. In reality I suspect there are simply no trades allowed of any players regardless of roster status or level after 4pm tomorrow. Whether it's a Rios, a Bohm, or a Gosselin.

I would still say Rios is in roster limbo. He's not on the 40. He's not in in the minors. He's not on another team's 40. One of those things will change before the DFA deadline and he will no longer be in limbo.