Coronavirus (general - personal, gov't response, etc. - not sports-specific)

[julio]

Lawman - the trouble is, it's Florida, and there are reports that DeSantis has directed his Health people to cook the books. They sacked the scientist who established their state reporting portal for refusing to "manipulate the data" - see this USA Today article.

Subsequently, this person, Rebekah Jones, indicated in a tweet, that:

...multiple health department sources have told her staff is being asked to “change the numbers and begin slowly deleting deaths and cases so it looks like Florida is improving next week in the leadup to July 4, like they’ve ‘made it over the hump.’ "

“I’ve independently verified they’ve deleted at least 1200 cases in the last week.”

Now, this last is hearsay. The USA Today report is, IMHO, not. But taken together, I would suggest that any "official" data coming out of Florida needs to be taken with a very large grain of salt.

[schillingfan]

I’ve tuned you out on this issue. I despise conspiracy theories and the fact you believe this will disappear on November 3, shows that is what you are believing and spinning. That doesn’t otherwise affect our long friendship. Some long time friends real life friends have put me on restricted list On Facebook due to politics. I wish they had just tuned me out on those issues, but trusted our long friendships on everything else.

[Lawman]

Now, this last is hearsay. The USA Today report is, IMHO, not. But taken together, I would suggest that any "official" data coming out of Florida needs to be taken with a very large grain of salt.

I know. Still interesting to say the least. I don't trust the numbers - either b/c the gov't is accused of cooking the books or b/c the gov't itself is over/under counting. Some states worse then others.

[allentown]

Currently declining death rates or not, the extreme rise of cases in FL, TX, and AR are alarming. Hospitalizations also appear to be up. This is genuinely scary and those resisting masks and social distancing under these circumstances are insanely irresponsible. The cases currently centered on the young adults, who are more resistant to severe outcomes, but they inevitably will spread the virus to their older relatives, co-workers, and just folks they encounter in businesses, if they don't mask and frequently hand wash. We Americans are not alone in our cavalier approach to this deadly pandemic. A friend in Britain thinks the first hot days of summer have brought out the irrational animal spirits of his fellow Brits who have absolutely mobbed beaches and other cooler holiday venues. He expects a huge case rebound and I firmly believe he is correct.

[andyb]

The FL daily death rates have NOT declined though. They have been flat since April with no real decline at all. CD picked a weekend day with little reporting to make a point that was basically not true. Look at the Florida chart here. Scroll down to the daily death chart and click the 7 day moving average. We are in the high 30s now. NOT 7 like CD implied. It was in the 40s for a few weeks in late April/early May, but in the last month it has been in the mid to upper 30s consistently.

With the increase in positive tests we are likely to see this increase as well in July. While nationally the number of deaths has decreased, they have stayed flat in Florida which is the exact opposite of the point CD was making. And now we have no idea what happens a couple of weeks after the number of positive tests explode.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

[julio]

Coronavirus (sports-related only)

I think there's still a legitimate question here that's not just about sports - how do we reasonably go back to "normal" activities if a vaccine is still a year (or even years) away? What combination of testing, contact tracing and mitigation works?

Good questions.

I think a part of the answer is that "normal" isn't necessarily going to be the same going forward as it was in the past.

It's likely that the virulence of this virus will diminish with time. Or not, but that seems to be a typical thing. But regardless, if we don't develop an effective vaccine or treatments that aren't 'as bad as the disease,' then we'll have to adapt our habits to a world with a dangerous disease vector that we cannot control. Kind of like the world that existed prior to about 1950, with regard to polio, or 1940 or so, with regard to various bacterial diseases, or prior to 1800, with regard to smallpox. We'll have to get used to higher mortality rates among the elderly (and possibly the very young, as well). I don't like that - but that describes most of human history (and pre-history), and we have perhaps deluded ourselves in believing that we have forever banished such a world.

[schillingfan]

Well that’s depressing. I’d like to think that we can use technology to develop a new and better normal. Hopefully one that is greener. If we had any kind of leadership from the federal government and politics weren’t so toxic, there’s no reason we can’t put together a task force from science, medicine, engineering, community, etc., etc. with a think tank under it and lots of funding for manufacturing and construction jobs to implement the ideas. Be proactive, not reactive. Honestly Ronald Reagan’s “Government is the problem not the solution” put us decades behind places with active governments.

[allentown]

We are going to need a large infrastructure bill as part of the stimulus. This is a great opportunity to kick greening movement up a notch. I don't see it as a big boost to public transit infrastructure, since I think the pandemic will make people less comfortable with public transit for years. Renewable energy, increased energy efficiency, retrofitting homes and buildings to use less energy and to be safer -- converting away from oil heat, greening agriculture.

[zambonir]

4 SoCal Counties That Reopened Restaurants Early Now Lead Statewide COVID-19...

[flyers19rw]

smartnews.com pegged the seven day moving average for Orange county at 49 cases on April 30. Yesterday it was 353. Perhaps the April count was under tested, which I doubt since OC has been an active area for testing since the beginning of the outbreak, but it can't be denied that the increase is at a great rate.
The hospitals in OC are getting loaded with patients; many coming from the Imperial Valley where the cases have exceeded local capacity. Some estimates are that one in three people in the Valley, where there is a heavily Hispanic population, have tested positive for the germ.

[Lawman]

I think the more we open up the more cases are going to spike, even in area that opened slowly and smartly. I just don't see a way around that. I saw one report from a disease specialist, who says to stop thinking in terms of "first wave" and "second wave." He says this is more like a forest fire, and until we have a vaccine there will always be hot spots popping up across the country that will have to be put out. I think that analogy is probably more accurate.

I've said it before. Open up, but have plans in place to begin targeted closing down/slowing down again. Open up, but ensure hospitals have supplies in place for eventual hot spots.

[rpmcmurphy]

Unfortunately, the “open up” politicians have proven incapable of having plans in place or adequate hospital supplies.

[zambonir]

That's really the bottom line. The lockdown was supposed to buy us time to make plans and address critical shortages in testing, infrastructure, contact tracing and medical supplies. That hasn't actually happened in a comprehensive way, and nearly every state, blue or red, has taken shortcuts (often while ignoring their own published targets and benchmarks - "well, we hit four of six, and we really need to open...").

And meanwhile the people who are truly suffering and experiencing the outbreaks are mostly people who were never able to work from home. And now bars and restaurants that were barely going to be able to survive the first closure and lengthy period of reduced capacity will get hammered again by another round of closures, and without any stimulus or aid this time.

[andyb]

I think it was inevitable that the country was going to push to open because of economics. Where we really went off the rails was making social distancing and mask wearing a political thing. This is 99% on Republicans. Leadership starts at the top and we simply have not had any. I have seen too many people without masks at places like the supermarket. I'll give people a pass outside, especially on blocks that are not crowded. But this thing is spreading indoors from people not wearing masks. Warm weather helped at the beginning, but we are all inside in air conditioning now.

[bkox]

Opinion | I’m a Health Care Worker. You Need to Know How Close We Are to...

[Lawman]

Unfortunately, the “open up” politicians have proven incapable of having plans in place or adequate hospital supplies.

Well, is that true? I mean, NY and NJ are not governed by "open up politicians." Do these states, for the most, have adequate hospital supplies at the ready should spikes occur? Do they have plans in place to be able to strategically close down areas? I don't know.

[schillingfan]

Opinion | I’m a Health Care Worker. You Need to Know How Close We Are to...

Just like New York. What is really, really scary, is that if everyone rally started wearing masks and staying home in the surge states like Arizona, there’s still a two week lag until the protective measures would even begin to show a decrease.

[zambonir]

Well, is that true? I mean, NY and NJ are not governed by "open up politicians." Do these states, for the most, have adequate hospital supplies at the ready should spikes occur? Do they have plans in place to be able to strategically close down areas? I don't know.

It varies, certainly even states that have been slower to open up have not "solved" anything or met all their targets for being open (or prepared for the worst). Most notably California. Oregon's biggest county is only open for 10 days and there's already talk of walking that back, in part because they made the decision based on inadequate data and hadn't met the contract trace goals. Which is also true of the other states except they just said, "ah who cares!" a lot faster.

But the real issue has nothing to do with the states. The entire federal infrastructure that was meant to be prepared for this at a national level (including supporting each state) was defunded and ignored for several years before we'd even heard of this virus. And it did not improve from there. The decision to just decide everything was over and we can open up and not talk about another round of stimulus and assistance is also not on the states.

[Lawman]

Immunity concerns temper optimism over coronavirus vaccine

[Philsmania]

We are going to need a large infrastructure bill as part of the stimulus. This is a great opportunity to kick greening movement up a notch. I don't see it as a big boost to public transit infrastructure, since I think the pandemic will make people less comfortable with public transit for years. Renewable energy, increased energy efficiency, retrofitting homes and buildings to use less energy and to be safer -- converting away from oil heat, greening agriculture.

This is why I say that while Biden is no left-wing radical, if he is a elected along with a fully-Democratic Congress (including a Senate which does away with the filibuster), he just might preside over the enactment of the most ambitious progressive agenda since the New Deal. Heck, FDR himself wasn't seen as a radical before he was elected--rather just an establishment figure who served in the last Democratic administration--and merely campaigned on doing something and even criticized Hoover for increasing the national debt.