2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[Yogi]

Nick c is back to his form from last year, we are in trouble. We need to play players who are doing things, not just the highest paid. Our highest paid players are the major problem for this team, they are not performing.

[BostonRoss]

Nick c is back to his form from last year, we are in trouble. We need to play players who are doing things, not just the highest paid. Our highest paid players are the major problem for this team, they are not performing.

You are responding to me, but I'm not sure which post. Apparently something from last week, but I don't know what. I don't remember posting about Castellanos.

In any case, I don't know what you are suggesting. Which players "are doing things"? Whom do you want to play, and whom do you want to bench?

[Sabin]

Nick c is back to his form from last year, we are in trouble.

                                                                                                                           
Year   Age  Tm Lg   G  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB    Pos Awards
2022    30 PHI NL 136 558 524 56 138 27  0 13  62  7  1 29 130 .263 .305 .389 .694   97 204  15   3  0  2   0        *9D/7H

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/31/2023.

                                                                                                                                
Split             G  GS  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2023 Totals      53  53 224 207 35  62 18  1  5  28  2  2 16  58 .300 .348 .469 .817  97   2   0  0  1   0   3  .393   100   123
Last 7 days       6   6  27  24  3   8  3  1  0   2  0  0  3   6 .333 .407 .542 .949  13   0   0  0  0   0   0  .444   133   155
Last 14 days     12  12  53  48  5  13  4  1  0   3  1  0  4  12 .271 .321 .396 .717  19   0   0  0  1   0   0  .351    77    96
Last 28 days     23  23  98  91 12  25  8  1  1   9  2  1  6  26 .275 .316 .418 .734  38   0   0  0  1   0   1  .369    80   100
Last 365 days   142 140 583 549 68 153 33  1 12  63  7  3 31 139 .279 .317 .408 .725 224  13   1  0  2   0   5  .353          78

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/30/2023.

[Callison]

Leg - good knowledge about the Phils' finances. When I say IMHO like I did, I mean to say I'm guessing. That's my best guess. You know the real reason or a better reason, I'm listening. Why couldn't the Phils close Rolen?

And notice I said MORE committed. Not that the Phils were underinvesting.

I hadn't even remembered the not-signing-Drew disaster. As a fan, I want Drew signed. The prize of the draft. A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. The Phils' refusal to pay Boras' outrageous demands is a perfect example. Hurt the Phils big time, likely hurt Drew, aided and abetted STL, Boras still made out like a bandit AND his rep grew even more. Not enough commitment to winning here, IMHO.

[LegoDoom]

I obviously don't know. When talking about the Rolen situation it was mentioned he wanted to be in the midwest (but I'm pretty sure he was open to a trade back to Philly, so it doesn't make a lot of sense). Schilling also wanted out, so there was something there. I guess the JD Drew situation and the Schilling trade makes a bit of sense as to the team not seeming competitive, but Schilling asked to leave so it's not like you can say the team got rid of him.

But the payroll was definitely increasing and they had a new stadium coming up. The timing is just odd to say they weren't trying to compete (and I am very much aware that this is the narrative).

Maybe the players didn't like the moves the team was making, but they were definitely trending up at the time Rolen wanted to be traded. My point is that it was just odd timing.

[zambonir]

We discussed all this extensively (perhaps even repeatedly!) at the time of Rolen's Hall. I considered just putting the WOF news there but thought the thread was older than it was (original post almost two years old but we were back at it in February).

Hall of Fame Discussion 2022 and Beyond

[BostonRoss]

Kody Clemens is on the All-Star ballot!

[zambonir]

I smell a viral campaign.

[LegoDoom]

We discussed all this extensively (perhaps even repeatedly!) at the time of Rolen's Hall. I considered just putting the WOF news there but thought the thread was older than it was (original post almost two years old but we were back at it in February).

Hall of Fame Discussion 2022 and Beyond

Thanks for this. I can't argue against the winning seasons argument, but the natural grass and current trend in spending makes no sense considering the new stadium.

I was a season ticket holder for the Thome years, so I don't want to downplay his importance to the fans, but I'm not sure it had a big effect on the trajectory of the team in the years following.

Also, Rolen said he would come back to Philly, so the midwest thing is a pretty flimsy argument.

It's also fine for a player to think the team isn't serious despite some of these points. I assume most people have been negative towards their work environments at some point.

[Aquapong]

This team is mediocre at best. Two players we need to have play to their capabilities are having career worst years. I’m not sure about JT, but it feels like a career worst year as well. The starters have been unreliable at best. We keep hoping they will hit their stride, but they feel more lost than last year to me.

[fish]

Too early to point out they need to dump 10 million at the trade deadline to get back under the tax? No point in going over that if it doesn’t look like they have a shot at the playoffs when the time comes. Castellanos and his salary would probably be the easiest to move- and even then they’d have to pay some down to get anything back.

And yes, I realize I said the same thing last year.

[Philsmania]

Think ping pong balls!

Tankathon | 2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

[zambonir]

Yes, it's too early. My guess is there is no way they sell. But if they get to the point where they are thinking about avoiding the tax won't trading Nola and Kimbrel just accomplish that? (I'm all for trading Castellanos at any time though.)

[bkox]

In the multiple wild card era, June 1st is just too early to write off any team except the worst of the worst (A's Royals etc)

No one in the NL is running away so far. We are 3.5 back in the wild card. Would we be this pessimistic if it was 3.5 in the division? Winning the division didnt seem to matter much last year did it?

[Austinfan]

What makes me pessimistic is that they have a bunch of guys 30 or older playing down to their age, Castellanos (empty BA), Schwarber, Realmuto, Nola, Walker. They're chasing too many pitches and aren't making consistent contact. Sure they can turn it around, but what if some hitters really aren't that good anymore? $70M tied in in 3 players who are struggling at the plate is discouraging.

[bkox]

Well Schwarber, Castellanos and Realmuto were all worse at this point of the season last year

Thing about Schwarber... his OPS is within a couple points of Bohm and Stott. And within a couple points of where he was on May 31st 2022. The man is still on pace for 38 HRs.

And home runs is kinda where another of our problem lies. The only hitter on this team on pace for more than 18 this season is Schwarber. Bohm is 2nd on the team in HRs with 6. Phillies on pace to hit 60 less HRs this season versus last year

[fish]

I’m sure De La Cruz isn’t being considered to replace Bohm, but the youthful exuberance of a rookie catching lightning in a bottle would do a world of good in making me want to watch this team again.

[zambonir]

I wonder if part of the struggles at the plate comes from the other teams being more prepared for the defending World Series champions - pitchers watching more video and having better/more extensive game plans against our hitters, who also haven't adjusted.

Conversely, you do have to wonder why they haven't adjusted. It seems both they and Long know what the problem is. If they aren't going to change their aggressive approach, they need to have better pitch recognition.

I certainly see both sides. What if Turner is just going to have a bad season and JT has actually begun his decline or just has an off-year, where he is still a valuable catcher and respectable hitter, but not an offensive linchpin. Add in Bohm's fairly light bat (he hits like a 2B, basicalliy) and Hoskins' absence and that's a big part of the problem.

And Schwarber will probably be okay but with his poor defense probably won't give you more than 1 or 1.5 WAR overall this season.

The optimistic view: they were 15-13 in April with a much better, if not always perfectly run-producing offense, and much less pitching. There's still time for the offense to come back and win games like these last two. It also just seems like the Mets have our numbers, whereas the Braves rivalry is equal.

[Jazzhead]

This team is mediocre at best. Two players we need to have play to their capabilities are having career worst years. I’m not sure about JT, but it feels like a career worst year as well. The starters have been unreliable at best. We keep hoping they will hit their stride, but they feel more lost than last year to me.

Which suggests things could turn around quickly. There is every reason to believe that Schwarbs and Trea will regress to their not inconsiderable means, and JT as well. I think the bullpen is in reasonably good shape. I agree that the starters are unreliable, and represent IMO our weak link.

[andyb]

Schwarber has definitely been the victim of some bad luck with a really low BABIP, though it is pretty clear he probably is never going to be much more than a .200 hitter that takes his walks. Automated strike zone probably will help him since he has a good idea of the zone.

I do agree that teams may have figured out the Phillies to some degree. Being aggressive helped multiple players (Harper, Castellanos, Bohm, Realmuto, Sosa). Add in Turner and you have a lineup that might have become too aggressive except for Bryce who tends to do lots of damage when he is aggressive. Castellanos is back to closer to his career norm, though part of the improvement may be realizing he is a doubles hitter and not really a HR hitter (his big year was the juiced ball year).

The Phillies will have to adjust like all good hitters need to adjust when something is not working well. Aggression is fine. One just needs to do damage when being aggressive. That usually means zoning in on one pitch in one part of the strike zone. There is probably too much guess hitting now, perhaps because one has to guess to get around on a 98 mph fastball like Senga had.