2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[phillychuck]

going after Goldy or Scherzer would help. but a lot of us have mentioned, earlier this year, that Scherzer is just a few pitches from injury. Goldy would be a nice offensive help but at 35, would be an all or nothing grab for this year and next. but, that saying, I would begrudgingly give up Kingery, Bailey Falter and Matt Kroon for either of them and let it ride.
gm

If they ask for Yhoswar Garcia I'd be willing to throw him in, too.

[Jazzhead]

The value of the Phils' prospects in a trade for Goldschmidt includes contract status and salary. Goldschmidt is a free agent after 2024, so you would be trading for 1.5 years of his service and paying him $26 million per year. He's 35. The Phils' prospects have six years of MLB control, two of those at minimal salary levels. They are in their early 20s. If they were to trade for Goldschmidt they would be gambling that Goldschmidt keeps producing at a near all-star level, and that their prospects do NOT achieve their ceilings. And they would be sacrificing a lot of money and tax penalties. And they would be engaging in an unsustainable strategy--you can't keep trading away young, cheap talent without cratering eventually.

Acquiring Goldschmidt only makes sense as a desperate attempt to win this year, because of a series of unlucky breaks that have rendered first base our least productive position. Long term, first base is a far easier position to upgrade than centerfield, which is where our future outfield talent shines. I'm happy to stick with Kody and see if Bryce can handle the position beginning in a month or so. That will also give us insight as to whether it make sense to re-sign Hoskins.

Now if the Cards want to dangle Arenado, then let's talk.

[allentown]

Sarcasm doesn't come across well on the internet. That's why /s is conventional. It doesn't bother me to be called Mr. Literal, actually far better than I filled in the blank. But... you say you are entitled to your opinion. And, you are. That means others are also entitled to their opinion.

You favor trading 'unproven AAA players' for expensive 35-year olds. Nobody said Goldschmidt isn't having a good season and that he couldn't help the Phillies this year. If the price is right, I'm not opposed to Goldschmidt, but do see a few big downsides. First, the Phillies already have a lot of expensive, old position players, most of whom realistically are defensively limited to 1B/DH and the team has Hoskins coming back and is prepping Harper to play 1B -- I don't see 1B as a priority hole to fill; second, the Phillies are over the lux tax limit; third. you rather cavalierly dismiss all prospects as 'unproven' and consider them legit trade bait to acquire an expensive 35-year old. A team that trades top prospects for expensive 30s players soon finds itself in the position the Phillies did after 2012, with a very long period of terrible. I don't want another decade of terrible. Every All Star was once an 'unproven' minor leaguer. Abel is a special talent. You don't trade him. We need better OF D, so I also don't trade Rojas and Muzziotti, because which guy is best still seems up in the air and both have a chance to be better than Marsh or Pache.

By 'if the price is right' for Goldschmidt, I mean basically a salary dump for perhaps Song and a minor prospect.

[Callison]

You know, if I'd said something insulting to somebody, like "rude" and "obtuse" I could see your point better.

[Callison]

allentown - I meant no offense. Somebody had to look hard to find it.

[zambonir]

2023 Phillies/MLB Trade Deadline Speculation/Discussion

Personally I am glad Harper did not make the all star game as I think the rest will do him good. Reset the mind and body

Do they still have that "final ballot" fan vote thing? Either way I still think he could make it. Yeah, Castelllanos is sort of the most deserving Phillie (as just a hitter) but there is more competition for outfielders. And Bryce Harper is Bryce Harper.

The fact that he can't play the field does give him and MLB a bit of an out. Obviously if he went he'd just get one pinch-hit and that's that. And the game is far away.

Maybe he should do the HR derby. I know we famously believe hitters lose their power after doing it but what if the opposite could be true?

[Austinfan]

Why are people down on a 25 year old CF who's slightly above average defensively and has a .834 OPS?
Yes, he Ks too much, can improve against LH pitching, but it's not like he's a finished product.

Now Bohm at 26, well, it's his "do or die" season
A below average fielding 3B who puts up RC+ 91 is easily replaceable.

If the Phillies were to trade a young OF, it should be in a package with Bohm for a young 3B. Not a 1B.

[BaseballCat]

There is certainly a way he could go, but I hope not unless he does reverse jinx the home run derby

[zambonir]

Why are people down on a 25 year old CF who's slightly above average defensively and has a .834 OPS?
Yes, he Ks too much, can improve against LH pitching, but it's not like he's a finished product.

Now Bohm at 26, well, it's his "do or die" season
A below average fielding 3B who puts up RC+ 91 is easily replaceable.

If the Phillies were to trade a young OF, it should be in a package with Bohm for a young 3B. Not a 1B.

Or for Arenado (kidding, mostly).

I get why people aren't all-in on Marsh, he's showing signs of life again, but he really collapsed most of the past two months (that nice OPS is almost entirely because of otherworldly April, reminds me of Herrera's hitting streak year, and both players were also good but not great as pure CFs defensively).

But I don't agree with Atown that Rojas and Muzziotti have a chance to be better than Marsh or Pache. All four of them have about the same chance. They're all still young. Rojas has the biggest chance of being better as the youngest/least advanced of them. But also the biggest chance of just being a light-hitting defense first guy (albeit a very valuable one). That also means he has the the most trade value and is the most blocked if you actually believe in Marsh and Pache (and don't think Marsh can play a corner).

Muzziotti is the guy I trade. Rojas would be more of a big swing and I don't think the Phillies will be taking a big swing. Off-season might be a different story. There is still not room on the 40 for all of them (including De La Cruz).

Can't rule out flipping Pache either, but given he was a more highly-ranked prospect than anyone in the Phillies system over the last seven years I would value him just as highly as anyone homegrown.

[BostonRoss]

Plus, Pache is performing at the major league level. SSS, but the other guys have no sample size.

[allentown]

All four of them have about the same chance. They're all still young. Rojas has the biggest chance of being better as the youngest/least advanced of them.

I think you said the same thing I did in different words. If they all have about the same chance, then that means that either Rojas or Muzziotti does have a chance to be better than Marsh or Pache. If they have relatively the same chance, then any of the 4 has the chance of turning out to be the best. You go on to say "Rojas has the biggest chance of being better as the youngest/least advanced of them. But also the biggest chance of just being a light-hitting defense first guy (albeit a very valuable one)." That translates to Rojas has a serious chance to be the best of the 4, but could also bust offensively. In addition to being the youngest, his chance to be the best is driven by his elite D being a carrying tool (albeit perhaps just to a #5 OF defensive specialist) augmented by his serious stolen base capability.

Of the 4, Marsh needs the most offense to succeed, since he is only adequate in CF

[zambonir]

Well I guess we agree in our scouting reports, just not in our willingness to reduce the odds of hitting on 1 out of 3 or 2 out of 3 instead of 4, if it helps the Phillies win in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't trade Rojas for a rental but I would Muzziotti. And if they somehow traded for a player as young and controllable as Marsh and they think Muzziotti could seriously be more than a 4th OF (or stuck in AAA next year) I wouldn't consider Rojas untouchable, just like O'Hoppe wasn't. But that does also depend on being confident in Marsh and Pache as continuing to be two of your four OFs in 2025.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Why does Pache still remain in the conversation as a long term possibility? Isn't he current value about what he was traded for this spring? I understand he could find his mark yet, but I don't believe teams are going to trade for him or keep him waiting for it to happen. I don't think anyone thought he would have hit quite as well as he did early this season, but I still believe it would fall under the short sample size description.

[allentown]

The biggest reason to at least significantly discount Pache it that, even when healthy this year, the Phillies have barely used him.

[Lucky_Beagle]

O'Hoppe wasn't an untouchable because he had arguable the best player in baseball at his position.

[zambonir]

Because he was once a better prospect than anyone else in the organization and it's looking like the A's - a joke of an organization these days too - gave up on him too early. His trade value last year was a lot higher. I agree he's not likely to get traded but it's also possible Rojas can't beat him out for a major league job next spring (not that more time in AAA would kill him). And Muzziotti just doesn't pair with Marsh, while neither of them probably projects as truly potent LF.

I don't have a strong opinion on which guy to trade, I just know that all five of these OFs (De La Cruz as well, and six if you include Cave) won't be on the 40 next year, and probably not on August 1. Up to DD to figure out who is a keeper and what kind of trade is worth including someone in. It would be a shame if it ends with them DFAing Pache and just flipping Muzziotti in an off-season compression trade.

[DurhamBull]

Why does Pache still remain in the conversation as a long term possibility?

An 876 OPS with excellent CF defense? What's not to be smitten with? As allentown said, the Phils have hardly played Pache, and 38 ABs isn't enough to draw conclusions from. He's still an enigma. He's only 24, he may have figured something out, or maybe he's more like the MLB career 487 OPS guy who is just getting lucky in 2023. IMO Pache is one of several young Phillies' OFs who fit the "possibly good" profile. They need to play at the major league level for a while before the Phils will know what they have, and they probably won't get a chance to give them all adequate playing time before some of them get traded.

[LoneStarPhan]

I have a tendency to be disappointed to see the Phillies trade prospects even though my experience over many years has been that most of the prospects do not turn out to be as good as I envision them in my mind. There have been some exceptions where the traded prospects turned out to be even better than I envisioned. Two trades with the Cubs come to mind. In both cases, I was pretty upset when the deals were done. One was the Jenkins and Phillips for ancient pitchers (Larry Jackson and Bob Buhl) who were (I think) 36 and 38. The other was the trade of Bowa for Ivan de Jesus, with a thrown in infielder also going to the Cubs. I strongly felt that the extra throw in player should have been someone coming to the Phillies. I viewed Bowa as the superior shortstop.

But the key to success in making deals like this is to be able to evaluate and project the future success of the players involved. Clearly, the Phillies cannot use or even retain all of the potential centerfielders we have been discussing. DD and his assistants have to make the decision of which players have a role in this team in 2024/25 and which are likely to not. Sometimes that is a prospect that is really good but just doesn't fit in to the projected needs and openings the team has upcoming. I think that is what was involved in the Marsh trade. The Phillies moved a good prospect that they liked, but who didn't project in the team plans because the position was blocked. The Phillies do not want to end up with excesses at a position and have to end up releasing players to open roster spots in future years. I remember back under some previous GMs, they often carried players on the offseason 40 man roster only to release a couple of them during spring training. This sometimes was done at the expense of protecting rule 5 eligible players that offseason.

I have more confidence in the folks in charge now than I have had at times in the past. Of course, it is not an exact science. Mistakes can be and will be made, but I hope that more often than not, the moves prove to be successful.

I do expect DD will makes some moves in the next month. A couple players will probably be obtained and they will probably be players that I don't see coming. Something could happen anytime now. The Rangers just added Chapman to their bullpen in a deal with KC tonight. I am sure the Phillies are already actively engaging multiple teams working on potential deals.

[Aquapong]

I would’ve rather had them keep O’Hoppe. He could have been worked in. JT could have coached him up as he transitioned to more time in 1B and DH. But then we signed more DH types and we kind of had to lean in to the plan. We effectively blocked JT’s positional flexibility and thereby blocking O’Hoppe’s as well.

[zambonir]

I don't think JT is ever going to play 1B or DH regularly. As was long predicted, by the time he needs to, he won't have the bat (including right now). I think he will still be catching in 2026 and 2027 too (whether for the Phillies or someone else).

The next question is actually Marchán. Garrett Stubbs' magic has worn off but this is already kind of a lost year for Marchán too. Is he still a future back-up (or better) and if so can he be ready next season?

And anyway as enticing as O'Hoppe is, and as good as season as he's having, Phillies are still winning that trade by a lot in the shorter-term. Marsh has already put up 3.0 WAR in his Phillies career and that trade (even more than Robertson or Thor) got them in the playoffs.