2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

Aquapong 2022-07-17 11:59:19 UTC #1142

Yep. We need a legit CF. Waiting to see if Rojas pans out in two more years is just wasting two more years of the team we have. Brandon Nimmo might be a free agent this offseason, but he’ll likely be in high demand. Any trade we make is going to hurt.

Austinfan 2022-07-17 14:22:35 UTC #1143

Just run Vierling out there every day. His BABIP and exit velo suggest there's substantial upside.

Castellanos and Realmuto look like they're breaking out of their funk, Bohm has steadily improved, Segura will be back in a couple weeks, Harper in September. So they don't need a lot of offense out of CF.

The bullpen is shining and Brogdon is back and Romero on the way.
Segura is back and Eflin should be in a couple weeks.

So the best move may be no move, or something low key like buying Gallo at a bargain basement cost.

bkox 2022-07-17 15:51:30 UTC #1144

Zach Eflin threw to hitters yesterday. Felt soreness in right knee today. Will be examined tomorrow in Phila. No timetable for return.
— Jim Salisbury ( @JSalisburyNBCS ) July 17, 2022

zambonir 2022-07-17 17:24:28 UTC #1145

Yeah they're gonna need a pitcher more than a CF but that was already true. A healthy Eflin was still your #3.

I guess the good news is the odds of Eflin exercising his end of the mutual option continue to rise, and/or he might have to sign a one-year deal in any case.

bkeich 2022-07-18 20:32:01 UTC #1146

Wow, just realized no baseball until Friday. Going to be a slow week

julio 2022-07-20 03:43:21 UTC #1147

14 posts were split to a new topic: 2022 MLB All-Star Game and Such

Aquapong 2022-07-20 21:18:06 UTC #1148

I bought tix to Sunday’s game and I’m glad I’ll be in the shade along the 3rd base line. It’s supposed to be 96. This whole week is supposed to be pretty brutal.

BaseballCat 2022-07-20 22:21:51 UTC #1149

We are going to be on the first base side in the Hall of Fame section (a stubhub splurge) on Friday. We will be at the Philadelphia Zoo members evening hour on Thursday. We have kept our membership up almost 20 years after leaving the Philly area. When I saw that the Phils were there the next day - that started the wheels turning for our trip from VA. After Phils game, we will see family in NJ and either a Jersey Shore or a Somerset (playing Reading) game on Sunday. Stay cool all and let’s go Phils!!

BostonRoss 2022-07-21 01:36:38 UTC #1150

I sat in the Hall of Fame club last September and really enjoyed it. Same price as a crowded grandstand seat at Fenway.

phillychuck 2022-07-21 02:59:19 UTC #1151

We are almost exactly one month after the solstice, and temperatures lag total sun energy by almost exactly a month worldwide. Translated--this is statistically likely to be the hottest week of the year. Take water with you to the park and stay hydrated!

Aquapong 2022-07-21 12:54:10 UTC #1152

Well the temp forecast in PHL for Sunday has been downgraded a bit from 99 to only 97. It’s funny that when I lived in Arizona, 97 still wasn’t that bad.

andyb 2022-07-21 16:40:50 UTC #1153

Pretty good article on the Athletic about how the Phillies have improved the bullpen under Thomson by having the starters go deeper. It also seems an organizational philosophy now in that they are having Abel and McGarry throw more pitches than other similar prospects. It does not touch on the 2-inning reliever which is sometimes a lost art, but the 13-pitcher limit is definitely forcing some different priorities on the major league roster.

zambonir 2022-07-21 18:15:06 UTC #1154

Pretty fascinating

The Phillies were constructed to pulverize teams with a powerful lineup that could outhit mistakes made by its so-so pitching and porous defense. They begin the second half Friday night with a 3.69 ERA, which ranks fourth in the National League.

Phillies relievers, since Thomson became manager, have faced the second-fewest batters in the major leagues. Only Houston’s bullpen has been used less. Coincidental or not, both the Phillies and Astros have a 2.99 ERA from their bullpens in that span. It’s tied for third-best in baseball.

andyb 2022-07-21 18:48:07 UTC #1155

Underrated in the bullpen story is Seranthony of course. He was the best homegrown reliever of the past 10-15 years and he was absent the last few years. Everyone that complains about spending $10 million for a very average closer like Knebel does not realize we just added the equivalent of a $15 million free agent reliever. Brogdon is also homegrown, but much more inconsistent and replaceable.

Replace Seranthony's innings with some big league average 4.00+ ERA innings and we are probably close to last year's bullpen.

Philsmania 2022-07-21 19:03:15 UTC #1156

Years from now, I wonder if we will rue how Kapler possibly broke Seranthony by overusing him his rookie year (64 appearances & 74.2 IP between REA, LHV & PHL in what was his first professional season as a reliever, including numerous high-leverage situations in PHL) causing him to miss most of the next three years. Fortunately, it looks like he has been successfully repaired but still, we may well have missed three good young years from him.

zambonir 2022-07-21 20:19:17 UTC #1157

That's much more than a manager-level decision. But also, relievers just break. I mean: they broke Robertson and Neshek and Hunter and I think even Nicasio too. Giles has broken many times since he left us.

Beyond that the issue was more COVID, and Seranthony's personal situation. That cost him an entire year.

The only inviolable rule of relief pitching, I think, is that homegrowing a Giles or Seranthony (or Neris, yes!) is truly the only foolproof thing (but even that is subject to injury, and another reason why Hector was so underrated). All of the other ways: big $, medium $, dumpster dives, fungibles really do feel more like roulette. But the Phillies also had some especially bad spins these last five years. Heck, Robertson was specifically signed for his durability!

andyb 2022-07-21 20:46:16 UTC #1158

All the luck stuff can be true while it is also true that we overused Seranthony. Look at the game log and the back to backs and multi-inning outings. It was a lot, especially for a relatively new reliever. No way to sugarcoat it.

Philsmania 2022-07-21 20:58:25 UTC #1159

I don't see how the Phillies could have broken Robertson. He pitched seven games for them. Maybe Girardi and Boone broke him in New York and and all those outings simply caught up to him when he got to Philadelphia. Interestingly, Robertson also seems to have returned to form nicely here in 2022, three years later after he broke down.

zambonir 2022-07-21 23:06:19 UTC #1160

For sure. But - as the article you posted also discusses - nobody really understands anything about usage patterns and mechanics and injury either. Can't assume that lighter or different usage in 2018 would have actually mean on injury in 2019. And yes, I was being facetious when I said the Phillies' broke Robertson but Seranthony's injury could have been dumb luck or bad timing and a single traumatic pitch just the same as Robertson's. The trainers and doctors can't draw firm conclusions and neither can wel.

Beyond that, if it is true, not sugarcoating it, just not blaming Kapler even a little. For one thing he had nothing to do with Seranthony's usage or quick promotions. And then Neris was terrrible that season and the team was ostensibly trying to win the division, but they did not acquire any relievers besides Aaron Loup (and then another guy when Loup got hurt). In those conditions of course the manager was going to overuse his best reliever - when really his bosses probably should have told him to chill out in general.

Of course, Seranthony's health and ability are also of no concern to Kapler or Klentak now (though it played a role in both of them getting fired).

Austinfan 2022-07-21 23:15:18 UTC #1161

I think you underestimate Brogdon, he has a plus changeup to go with that 96 MPH FB and is working on his cutter as a third pitch. Throw in Romero and you have a nice trio of homegrown talent.