I don't think the Phillies struggles are a big mystery. It's 50% strength of schedule and 50% injuries. With better health they might be more competitive against the best teams, but so it goes. The bullpen's struggles are still directly related to both the loss of Knebel and Seranthony (putting more pressure on the others in addition to the rough return of Seranthony himself) and the rotation's own struggles. The line-up has never not been missing two key players and Harper is not yet himself.
They're going to make the playoffs, and maybe with health and luck they'll do better in October than they have in these last five games. Maybe they'll even do better over these next four. But at least we get to ride the ride. And I still welcome the 6th seed over the 5th.
1. Interim manager Rob Thomson pushes back on the Phillies-can’t-beat-good-teams narrative, citing their victorious season series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals. The facts remain: Against winning teams, they were 5-11 since the All-Star break, 16-17 under Thomson, and 29-34 overall, with eight of the last 15 games coming against playoff-bound clubs.
2. Nobody is asking the Phillies to apologize for beating up on the NL’s four weakest teams, but it’s hard to ignore that they are 37-11 against Washington, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati and 43-56 against everyone else.
The Phillies, right now, are a postseason team by default. The National League must send six teams to the tournament. The sixth-best team was always going to be a good — not great — team. But the Phillies have lost five straight games. They have lost 16 of their last 20 games against teams with winning records, since July 10. They are neither good nor great in their current form.