2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

Skipping Spencer Howard

Going with the extra hitter though in Marchan so I imagine Howard could be piggy-backing with Vince. In a month with so many off days maybe they only want Vince to go 3 or 4 anyway (1 AB then pinch hitter).

[zambonir]

I get the sense that they've also decided giving Nola extra rest doesn't help him.

But these roster moves are only for today. I assume the hope is Marchan for Didi on Saturday. And yeah, also makes sense to use Howard out of the pen. Kind of out of call-ups anyway, unless they want to bring De Los Santos back or see Lail.

[bkox]

Looks like they will need Howard to start next Wednesday. 5 straight games Sat-Wed. If they piggy back him with VInce, than he would be starting on 3 days rest.

[andyb]

Might be ok if he only goes 2 innings each time

[bkox]

Spencer Howard will indeed start Monday at Dodger Stadium, Joe Girardi said. https://t.co/k6qaIC9FOE

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) June 10, 2021

[zambonir]

Well, so far so good. I think we can beat the Yankees twice. But the road trip is still gonna be rough.

GDT 6/6/21 Washington Nationals (TBD) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez)

I hope they can outperform my expectations this month, which aren't high:

2-1 Braves
1-1 Yankees
2-4 West Coast road trip (LA, SF)
2-0 Nats

[andyb]

Lail was outrighted after he cleared waivers, so that likely accounts for the Haseley 40-man spot.

We'll still probably add a pitcher before Saturday (likely for Marchan) as we now have the rare 6-man bench and potential short starts from Velasquez and Howard on the horizon. Didi also a possibility for Saturday. I am guessing Williams has played himself into staying and Jankowski will be on the move (which means we could add a pitcher off the 40 if we wanted to).

[zambonir]

Lail was outrighted after he cleared waivers, so that likely accounts for the Haseley 40-man spot.

Ah, still not on the official ledger.

Though I also can't help but wonder if JT is banged up again. Obviously on the surface a completely normal day game start for Knapp, and no reason to think the pen would be taxed (and it wasn't).

Next pitcher up could still just be Anderson coming back or Moore coming off IL/rehab.

[el-pietro]

As of today Zach Wheeler leads the majors in baseball reference WAR with, and is second to Brandon Woodruff for pitching WAR with 3.8 to Woodruffs 3.9.
Fangraphs has him tied for first among pitchers with 3.2 with deGrom.

Zach Wheeler has been really very good the entire time hes been in Philadelphia.

[Philsmania]

As of today Zach Wheeler leads the majors in baseball reference WAR with, and is second to Brandon Woodruff for pitching WAR with 3.8 to Woodruffs 3.9.
Fangraphs has him tied for first among pitchers with 3.2 with deGrom.

Zach Wheeler has been really very good the entire time hes been in Philadelphia.

Klentak got at least one thing right.

If not for DeGrom, Wheeler would be a strong Cy Young candidate.

[David_Criss]

Hard to be a Cy Young winner if his win totals are single digits thanks to lackluster hitting when he pitches.

[BostonRoss]

Hard to be a Cy Young winner if his win totals are single digits thanks to lackluster hitting when he pitches.

At the moment, deGrom has only one more win than Wheeler.

[bkox]

Hard to be a Cy Young winner if his win totals are single digits thanks to lackluster hitting when he pitches.

Wins have become less of a need in the CY Young race. DeGrom has won twice with records of 11-8 and 10-9

[zambonir]

I reckon Wheeler could at least give DeGrom a race if the Phillies stay alive in the division race all season.

[California_Dreamin]

They won't do it but if I were the Phillies I would look to trade Segura right now, when his value is at its highest. Tampa Bay sure would look to move a Segura now and try and get back two younger players, one a position player and one a hurler. I still believe that if Kingery was allowed to simply play 2nd base and KNEW the spot was his he would be fine and if that failed to work Williams could be given an opportunity to win the spot.

Segura's value is unlikely to ever be higher, he is playing at a near All Star level right now and might look quite enticing to a team that feels it is one solid hitting infielder away from a playoff berth.

Sadly, my guess is that the Phils will keep Segura, he will regress to the norm, and the Phils will someday look to move him when his value is at its lowest.

[zambonir]

I don't think his value as is high as you think it is though. They would have to pick up nearly all his salary this year and 50% of it next year to get even just a decent return.

And they actually need him. If the team is still heading for 81 wins anyway, going with Kingery and Williams wouldn't be the end of the world (and I still think Didi needs to move to 2B next year on top of that) but right now trading him makes the team worse, and the best value for the Phillies' $ is to have him on the team. And there probably aren't even enough buyers/pressure on anyone to make that move right now. Five weeks from now, we'll see.

Also he has a no-trade clause and would probably want a bonus to waive it. If he were a truly valuable player, he'd insist the new team guarantee his option year.

They can probably get the same return for him in the off-season, but that is still going to be a gamble with the question marks about Kingery and Didi.

[Taudawg]

Segura in 2022 is a mystery. 2021 Segura is on his way to being a 4+ WAR player and by modern WAR values, that more than pays his salary for both this year and next. If they expect to contend the rest of the way, now is not the time to be experimenting with a position that is currently settled.

Hypothetical - who would be in the market for Jean Segura? It's not clear to me there would be enough competition to acquire Segura the Phillies could net anything positive.

[zambonir]

You would think those two paragraphs contradict each other - that as a 4+WAR player Segura could help just about any contender, including as a DH, and be worth the salary. But the way teams manage their rosters and payrolls is more complicated than that. I agree, there's probably not much demand for him and the Phillies need him right now more than they need whatever his trade value is. If you could actually get a package built around a Top 10 prospect for him, different story perhaps.

As much as I appreciate CD's point that a team like the Rays would get ahead of this, a team like the Rays wouldn't have had $30 million committed to a player like Segura in the first place. And even if he was cheaper but had his big salary bump coming, they'd do that deal in the off-season, not while they were in contention mid-season.

Of course the Rays would also trade Wheeler this coming off-season (again, if he was a controllable player, they don't sign players like Wheeler to big contracts in the first place).

[andyb]

But remember, any player can be traded. Almost every trade has money going one way or the other. If the Phillies fell out of contention and were selling then Segura would have lots and lots of value because he is playing well.

Do you think DD would think twice about sending over $15 million to pick up a couple of top 100 prospects? That is why we brought him here. To tell owners what they need to do to win from somebody who has actually done it. Klentak's handling of money in trades was one of his biggest problems. He thought he was being cute managing around the luxury tax threshold and he gave up talent left and right for nothing (like throwing Santana in the Segura trade).

[Austinfan]

Segura started adjusting last year, he's figured out that he has to be more selective at the plate, and actually executed that strategy. BB% 10.6 last year, 7.1 this year, both career highs (rookie season 7.2 in 166 PA). He's been about a 3 WAR player on average the last five years, more than earning his contract, and he should be able to post at least 2 WAR next year (paying his $14M deal). BABIP this year at .362 is a tad bit high.