2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

Watching Kingery, his success is no fluke.
He's starting to work counts more, as he gets more confidence in his ability to hit with 2 strikes.
He's got a great stroke, really quick bat that generates power.
Biggest flaw is probably his recognition of breaking balls, but he's not Hernandez bad and has upside there.
The BABIP is unsustainable, but with his speed and exit velo, he should be north of .350.

(I thought Hernandez had turned the corner before he hurt his foot last year, and that his start this year confirmed it, but like Franco, is regressing to his career norms or worse).

[allentown]

See also how many thought/expected Crawford would be the new Rollins.

And in 99 PA, Crawford now has a .354 OBP and .756 OPS for Seattle. Hasn't demonstrated base-stealing ability. He has +0.5 WAR -- not bad for 100 AB.

[zambonir]

I think part of it is not just living up to players like Schmidt, Utley or Rollins, but also having expectations of how the pieces of an offense fit together. The '08 and '09 team's three big offensive stars were all infielders, and the two middle IFs in particular meant the 3B didn't have to be as big a bat. So long as Cutch, Harper, and Hoskins are meeting expectations our 2B doesn't have to be an All-Star bat, especially with big bats at C and SS too. Crawford would have still been fine if Franco and Herrera were productive (of course right now Segura has disappeared but he'll be back).

[BostonRoss]

I admit to being a little worried about Harper. He has the worst bWAR of any starter on the team (even Bruce's two weeks). Actually, I'm not sure who the starting 3B is, but he's barely ahead of Miller, who's played four games. (Harper is well ahead of Franco.)

It is true that Harper had a bad first half last year. Through 75 games last year he was hitting only .219, but his OPS was .836, well ahead of where it is this year. He only hit two homers in June 2018 (same as this year so far), but he had hit 18 going into June, compared to 10 this year.

Harper did recover nicely in the second half of 2018, but his BABIP in the first half was only .226, almost 100 points below his career average. It was .378 in the second half, which of course is not likely to be repeated. Furthermore, his BABIP this year is 320, right at his career average. So if his first half in 2018 was a bit unlucky, that doesn't seem to be the case this year.

It's still early, and Harper is young; so I expect at least some recovery. But how much?

[NCPhilsphan]

The problem is much more than just the roster as now constructed. You see teams like the Braves, Nats, Dodgers, Astros, and Cubs with so many super talented you g players and just as many talented young guys in the upper minors. The Phillies don’t gave that even after so many losing seasons. The Phillies are not even close to those teams in terms of talent evaluation. Yes Kingery and Hoskins are nice players but look at what guys Like Acuna, Soto, etc are doing. Even the Mets seem to have found a diamond in Alonso. They need better scouting and development of players. At this point you have to wonder who the real Nola is. The sad part is the Phillies have spent so much money for this mess.

[zambonir]

News of Former Phillies 2019

Discussion above about Williams, Haseley, Quinn, etc.

I don't think Williams or Haseley is the next guy up in this OF so long as Quinn is back. For either to return you'd have to DFA Rodriguez or Miller - or Franco. Not that any of them are great losses. But it seems like what they need now is either a RH-hitting OF to pair with Bruce (and to have off the bench instead of Franco) or a more proven CF option.

It actually would be nice to see what NIck could do with 10 starts in a row but would you really bench Bruce for him? And if he went 0-12 in his first three games, what then? They just don't work as a LF platoon and neither of them can play anywhere else.

[DurhamBull]

I'm curious what the Phils are thinking about Franco. Since they appear to be willing to start just about anyone at 3B instead of him, and he lacks the versatility for a bench role (3B/1B only, doesn't run well), I have to think his days on the team are numbered because the Phils need the roster spot. I wonder if the Phils aren't trying to arrange a change-of-scenery trade.

[zambonir]

I think it all comes back to the question of whether or not they can wait another 2-3 weeks to make moves, including where the overall trade market is going to be between now and the All-Star Break. Franco doesn't get you much on his own so he's probably here until a bigger deal can be consummated, unless you just move him for someone else's problem. But having him on the roster now that Quinn is back really doesn't add much and they can certainly use all the help they can get right now.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies match Orioles as only two MLB teams with 1-9 record over their last ten games.

Time to turn things around.

[Lawman]

I was thinking yesterday that I don't really know what moves the Phillies should make leading up to the deadline. I think that the NL East is out of the question. So, that leaves Wild Card as their only realistic path to the post season. There are too many holes on this team to fill for them to be shoring up the team to make a WC run.

They don't hit well for average or power. They don't pitch well. The upper echelon talent just isn't there. I'd argue they should trade Realmuto - upper echelon FA catcher may be attractive to a contending team - and see what he brings you back.

[California_Dreamin]

Realmuto is not a FA, he still has 1.5 years to go on his contract. And moving him sends a terrible message to the club, the phans and players. Look, the McCuthchen injury was much more damaging than we imagined, and like him or not, the loss of Herrera hurt also.

I will say it again, as someone who has been in more than my share of clubhouses. It is not good for a team with very little long built culture to be moving players in and out every time the sun sets. Teams are built with talent first and foremost but are seasoned with camaraderie, and this is impossible given the way the Phils move their bullpen pieces back and forth between LHV and Philadelphia. Its just wrong, I will never be an advocate for it.

I have said this before and will repeat it...the Phils are NOT the Dodgers and should stop trying to emulate them. Just stop it already. And for this talk that the Dodgers are a 3 True Outcomes team, they sure have an awful lot of .300 hitters for a team that supposedly subscribes to the home run, walk, strikeout philosophy. I think they are privately laughing at teams like the Phillies, who are trying to copy a system that the Dodgers abandoned 3 years ago.

While I agree that no one move will change a teams fortunes completely, I also believe one move can begin to make a difference and to do nothing is simply foolish. Hiring Kapler was a huge mistake, he is simply in over his head as a manager. His crazy views are probably laughed at privately by the players and like I said, this will all come out eventually.

There an awful lot of good candidates out there...Girardi, Showalter, Wathan are three possibilities. Klentak has put himself in such an awkward position, he was told by McPhail that a GM only has so many managerial firings before it falls on him and Klentak knows this.

But to sit back and do nothing seems less than awe inspiring also.

[Lawman]

My mistake on Realmuto, for some reason I thought he was a FA after this season.

That being said, this team has not put Klentak into any sort of position to be a strong buyer on the trade deadline market.

[fish]

That being said, this team has not put Klentak into any sort of position to be a strong buyer on the trade deadline market.

They may not need to go all-in as much as they need to shuffle the deck.

[nycphils]

Realmuto: .260/.317/.426
Alfaro: .261/.312/.419

Sixto (at AA): 8 starts, 3.60 ERA, 45 IP, 44K/7BB

[California_Dreamin]

The Phils have problems but Realmuto isn't one of them. The last time I looked catchers were valued primarily for their defense and if this is still the case [and I think it is] Realmuto is A+ in my book.

Ironically the ONLY reason his offense is being critiqued is because he is such a solid hitting catcher.

I make that deal everyday of the week that ends in a Y.

[flyers19rw]

The make up of the team has changed since Kapler was hired. It has gone from a young team with prospects being expected to fill important positions to one where, instead, veterans have been brought in to do that job. Perhaps Kapler's approach might have been successful with last year's club had that road continued to be travelled but things have all changed with the addition of the vets. McCutcheon, Harper, Bruce, and the other vets picked up over the last nine months, aren't going to respond to gimmicky approaches and make changes to their game. The team needs a veteran manager who commands the respect of the most valuable members of the present club and will allow them to do what they do best in the way that they have done it in the past. No offense to Kapler; he's just a bad fit for this club at this time.

[California_Dreamin]

Bingo.

[allentown]

But... look at the dWAR and total bref WAR -- they both show a significant advantage for Realmuto. They are currently, as you note, equivalent hitters and Alfaro likely surpasses Realmuto next year. Less obvious that Alfaro can develop into a defensive positive. I think the Phillies, rightfully or wrongfully, dealt Alfaro because they didn't expect to be happy with his D anytime soon. With young SP, a plus defensive catcher means a lot.

[schillingfan]

The make up of the team has changed since Kapler was hired. It has gone from a young team with prospects being expected to fill important positions to one where, instead, veterans have been brought in to do that job. Perhaps Kapler's approach might have been successful with last year's club had that road continued to be travelled but things have all changed with the addition of the vets. McCutcheon, Harper, Bruce, and the other vets picked up over the last nine months, aren't going to respond to gimmicky approaches and make changes to their game. The team needs a veteran manager who commands the respect of the most valuable members of the present club and will allow them to do what they do best in the way that they have done it in the past. No offense to Kapler; he's just a bad fit for this club at this time.

Kapler’s approach at the beginning of the year was completely different from last year. He sent out the same lineup every night and there were defined bullpen roles even though he didn’t say so. With McCutcheon ad Herrera, team stopped hitting.his moves since then are attempts to make something work.

[Austinfan]

Problem with the Phillies, is other than Harper and Hoskins (and Cutch before his injury), they aren't a 3 outcome team.
Segura, Realmuto and Kingery are not selective hitters, though I see signs that Kingery is working hard to become better at being selective.
Quinn right now looks like a guy getting used to hitting RH against RH pitching.
Franco and Herrera have tanked their careers. Hernandez is following them down.

I was not excited about adding Harper or Machado, and this is the outcome I feared, making win now moves before you've built the talent foundation.

However, patience is counseled, this is the first season Klentak has been able to have the new regime in place in terms of player development throughout the organization. A lot of young players were off to slow starts have now turned their season around in the minors. Same with the ML hitters, the new hitting coach just hasn't had that long to work with hitters, and part of that change is identify the players who can't learn a new approach and adjust.