2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

zambonir 2018-07-05 23:58:28 UTC #71

Listen, I'm excited about Eflin, but that's recency bias. Yes, it looks like an upward curve, but we don't know that for sure. This is still the same guy who couldn't beat out Ben Lively in ST and was not especially good in his first five starts. If we were having this conversation on June 1 everyone would have traded him, and Pivetta would have been untouchable. And they have been in the wild card race all season.

It's really rare for contenders to trade guys off their roster anyway, unless what you are getting back fills the same hole. Unless or until the Phillies acquire a starting pitcher there's no real reason to think they'd also trade one.

Plus, if you look at the article I posted in the MLB non-Phillies thread, the Orioles are notorious for flunking players on their physicals.

andyb 2018-07-06 00:44:45 UTC #72

I am worried they will trade JP for a rental. I know they say the right thing about him, but I think they lost some confidence in him with the slow start last year. The whole usage pattern with Kingery has suggested that. He is no longer their favorite prospect.

BostonRoss 2018-07-06 01:34:01 UTC #73

No, I guess no one said that although andyb said he was one of 4-5 depth arms and might be the one to trade (though he also said he was not advocating to do that). (Actually, one poster said he'd trade Eflin for Trout--I'd do that.)

I suppose I was just joining the chorus of people who wouldn't trade Eflin. I agree that his track record of good pitching is quite short, but unless one thinks he is likely to regress, it makes more sense to trade someone else who is not contributing to this year's pennant run.

zambonir 2018-07-06 01:58:25 UTC #74

I think this is just your personal fear, because you like him so much (hey, me too) and hate how they are using him. To me the way they worked him in last September and then jumped him past Franco is still pretty positive. Even the articles this week talk about either platooning Kingery and Crawford at 3B or putting Crawford at 3B and Kingery at 2B next year. He would also still have significant value taking over a kind of hybrid Kingery/Florimon role, if they really did trade Hernandez.

But even if they are down on him, or if, arguably, they should trade him if they don't want him to be the SS, I just don't see how they can do it until MM is under contract.

andyb 2018-07-06 13:15:49 UTC #75

Every Machado rumor has had the Orioles getting either Crawford or Kingery back (Franco has been mentioned too but more as an addition to one of the first two). The Orioles have serious holes in their infield without Machado. I can't see them making a deal without an immediate replacement.

Machado will have a steep price, even as a rental. Few players of his age and quality have been dealt at the deadline. I think the Orioles will get at least 2 immediate contributors in any deal (a middle infielder and a starter). We have to decide if it is worth the cost.

tom81 2018-07-06 14:25:51 UTC #76

Yes, if this is what the O's are looking for we have to decide if it is worth the cost, and which 2 "immediate contributors" are involved will determine that. Personally I'd be OK including Thompson, Lively, and possibly Eickhoff as the pitcher and Franco or Valentin as the middle infielder. I wouldn't do the deal including any of our current SP's or Kingery or Crawford.

I don't remember every thinking that way about Eickhoff. Of course I don't remember a lot of things anymore.

I was also very bullish on Eflin's future a year ago and was not looking to include him in any deal.

You were the one always down of Eflin because of his low strike out numbers.

zambonir 2018-07-06 15:32:12 UTC #77

I think Machado will still be in Baltimore on August 1 if the Orioles really expect that back. That's not to say I wouldn't consider it if they really have that good an offer from another team, but I'm skeptical they'll get one. Certainly he is an especially great player, but he's still a rental (so his age doesn't really matter), with those poor defensive metrics (even if they are questionable). The main reason he might be worth more is the re-signing fantasy.

But right now it's just a wish list. If you go back and read J.D. Martinez rumors from last year everyone assumed the D-Backs would have to give up two of their Top 5 prospects plus a third player. Instead they gave up at most, one Top 10 guy of the three. And I would still consider KIngery and Crawford to be of that caliber.

But let's say either Crawford and Medina or Crawford and Eflin get it done (plus a throw-in). Which would you rather?

julio 2018-07-06 16:07:07 UTC #78

Machado will be a free agent in October if he's not traded (and quite possibly even if he is!). If the Orioles don't trade him, they'll get a compensatory draft pick, and nothing else.

Given that they know this, their interest is to get the best deal they can for Machado - assuming only that they get something more valuable than a draft pick in the 31-34 range. Their only task is to get the best deal they can, which is likely to only be available until the trade deadline (Machado isn't going to clear trade waivers after August 1 - I assume the Phils would submit a claim, and I doubt they'd be the only club to do so). So I strongly doubt Machado will be in Baltimore on August 1st.

I don't think it's a question of what the Orioles "expect" in return. It's a question of what the various interested clubs will offer, in what is essentially an auction. It's in the Orioles' interest at this point to posture a bit about what they "need" back - but what they'll accept will meet two critera (and two only, IMHO): 1) it's more attractive than a 2019 compensatory draft pick; and 2) it's the best offer they have as of the trade deadline.

Given that they're playing an auction game here, the existence of the deadline, and auction psychology, suggest that Machado will not likely be traded much before the deadline. The Orioles' interest here is to hold out for a "better deal," allowing the bidders to get a bit anxious, and maybe a bit irrational, as the deadline approaches. If a club (Phils or other) wants Machado sooner, I would think they'd need to pretty much "blow the Orioles away" with an offer that's beyond what they realistically think they can leverage at the deadline. Do we want the Phils to attempt that?

Downside risk for the Orioles? I guess the chance that a bidder will just give up, and make a deal for a Moustakis (much inferior, but maybe "good enough" for a bidder) instead. Of course, also the chance that a bidder will go on a 15-game losing streak, suddenly realize they're no longer in contention this season, and drop out of the bidding. But if there are several interested bidders, these are fairly minimal risks for the Birds.

andyb 2018-07-06 16:48:05 UTC #79

I would love if we could build a deal around Thompson, Lively and Franco. Just don't think it will be enough.

Spot start for Lively is possible in a couple of days. Let's hope for a good one to build some trade value.

zambonir 2018-07-06 16:51:10 UTC #80

I think the "x factor" is the dysfunction of the Orioles. It's not clear who really gets to make this trade, and therefore whose ego is on the line, and who the fans will judge for the deal.

But, all the more reason for buyers to bide their time. I agree they are unlikely to settle for the draft pick, and they would lose their leverage in August (even if the claiming team actually did want to do a deal).

From the Phillies' perspective though, Machado is just that much better than any other option, and there's the added perk of having him in the fold heading into his free agency. Plus, they just like the guy (and know him). Moustakas doesn't necessarily move the needle (as MLBTR noted today he has a sub-.700 OPS in his last 40 games, and a low OBP overall). But, marginal improvements for marginal cost is certainly still a valid way to go if the price for big improvement is too high.

andyb 2018-07-06 16:55:23 UTC #81

That is true, though not a complete picture. When we initially acquired him I thought it was a great trade because he had plus velocity and the makings of offspeed pitches that would enable him to increase his K rate. That has happened (coupled with better health as well though it is hard to know if the improvement is due to healthy knees or just the normal maturation process.

With projectable pitchers the full package sometimes takes time. I take an Eflin every day of the week over a Lively or Eshelman because he has the tools to be better than those guys if he puts it all together. My opinion on his prospect status never really changed - he just got better. At the same time I am not under the illusion that he is a top of the rotation starter. He probably has the stuff to be a number three and that is really good. He is not quite there yet.

As for trading him the case is all about being at the top of his value. If we trade him and get Machado (without giving up Crawford or Kingery or Sanchez or Medina or De Los Santos) it would have to be something we consider. It is kind of a waste of time to post that we should hold out for a Franco/Lively for Machado trade because that is not realistic. Of course I would love that trade and love keeping Eflin. But it is simply not that realistic.

I hope we keep Eflin. De Los Santos is actually the hot season guy I would prefer to trade. I am just a little unsure of his secondary pitches and projection. Like him as a prospect. But realize he has lots of trade value now.

allentown 2018-07-06 17:12:23 UTC #82

If we make the deal, I think it will be something like Crawford, Medina, Lively and Thompson for Machado, a reliever, and international allocation.

Patchmk88 2018-07-06 17:40:53 UTC #83

I really hope we don’t trade for Moustakas. He’s not better than what we currently have

tom81 2018-07-06 18:07:19 UTC #84

I agree 100% that is tools are better.

You imply that he does not have the stuff to be a number one or number two. I think he has shown in his last six games that he does have the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter, a number 1 or 2, but he needs to do it over a longer period of time to be classified as one. What he has done over his last six games have left me no doubt the stuff is there but you never know if it will stay there.

Eflin (7-2) allowed two runs and five hits with six strikeouts and no walks to become the first Phillies pitcher since Cliff Lee in 2011 to record six consecutive wins. The right-hander has a 1.91 ERA while striking out 34 and walking six in 37 2/3 innings over that stretch.

julio 2018-07-06 18:16:48 UTC #85

The thing with Eflin is that, IMHO, it's just too early to really know. This is not the same pitcher as the guy who accumulated all his minor-league data, nor his major-league data prior to this season. He's had both knees rebuilt, correcting what were apparently congenital defects. For the first time - apparently the first time in his life - he's pitching without chronic leg pain.

So, my view is that we just don't know what his ceiling is. We have little basis for projecting it. I would be reluctant to trade Eflin for anything other than a long-term asset, because Eflin may well be that. Or he may not; but assuming he is what he showed in the minors is, in my opinion, not wise in this case.

zambonir 2018-07-06 18:27:05 UTC #86

That appears to be true at this point, and given the premium this team puts on OBP, I think it's unlikely. Rumors are likely just the Phillies doing their due diligence or seeing if they can steal him. But you're still talking about a guy who hit 38 HRs and put up an .800+ OPS each of his last two full seasons. Nobody we have has done that, or will be able to do that this year. He's apparently hurt again, so caveat emptor.

andyb 2018-07-06 18:27:58 UTC #87

Even with the improvement Eflin still has only an OK K/9 rate. Saying he can be a good #3 starter is a compliment.

This article discusses his stuff in more detail (more from a fantasy perspective, but it does look at the quality of his secondary pitches). He is clearly better than he was previously. Thinking he can be better than a number 3 is just counter to most of the evidence out there.

tom81 2018-07-06 18:53:00 UTC #88

Thinking he can be better than a number 3 is not counter to the way he has pitched since June. That article was from May 11, he has shown a lot of improvement in command and stuff since then. Are you watching him pitch? When his catcher puts up a target for him he now hits that target. Watching the frequency Velasquez and sometimes Pivetta miss really brings this into focus. Have you also noticed that his changeup has been getting slower lately too? In his last start there was about a 12 mph difference in his change from his fastball.
https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=13774&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1,2&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=CH,FA&ymin=&ymax=

See how his improved change up, as well as other aspects of his improvement have improved his performance against left handed hitters. He has a 3.38 ERA vs lefties this year vs over 7.5 in his other two years.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=13774&position=P&statArr=6&legend=1&split=lr&time=season&ymin=&ymax=

julio 2018-07-06 19:53:01 UTC #89

I don't necessarily disagree with this. I'm just not convinced there's enough evidence, yet, to draw a conclusion one way or the other. The Fangraphs piece you linked was written in May, and is based on all of two starts. Even then, the main conclusion was that Eflin's increased velocity might help his secondary pitches be more effective. Not much of a conclusion - but given that the author was looking at 12 innings of data, you can't expect much!

Since the uncertainty about his value is thus very high, I'd be reluctant to trade Eflin for a rental. Three months of Steve Trout would be nice; three months of Steve Trout for a pitcher who goes on to be a quality starter for ten years - for somebody else - doesn't sound like a good idea to me.

Tell me Machado is on board for five years, and I'm fine trading Eflin. But for two-three months? I tend to see that as a choice to sacrifice the long term for a short-term gamble at the post-season. I don't think that makes sense for a young ball club. (It could make sense for a contending club with a bunch of key players approaching the "age of decline," but that's not where the Phillies are.)

saycheese 2018-07-06 20:57:06 UTC #90

Baltimore is not going to get somebody from our Major league rotation for Machado. I don' t think Klentak is going to give up JP Crawford or Kingery either. So what can and should we offer. I think most of us may be fine with including Moniak or Randolph as a centerpiece they are duplicate players but guys who have a certain pin-nosh for Baltimore to say hey we got the 10th overall pick in the draft or the 1st overall pick in the draft. Meanwhile we have Haseley, we have Odbul who is still young both Williams and Altherr can play center field. Its an area of strength. We have pitching coming in waves. De Los Santos, Irvin and Saurez are all pitching well (not to mention Lively and Eshelman may have some value), Then we have Kilome & Romero in AA. Medina and Sixto in Clearwater. Let them choose between Moniak and Randolph, Irvin or Saurez and either Lively or Eshelman. That is a strong offer for a guy who is not going to resign there and only has a few months left on his contract. In fact The pitchers they get would go right into Baltimores rotation. I would even consider Altherr or Cozens instead of one of the pitchers if they want a little more major league talent. None of this would hurt the team as constructed today or in the future. It would take a little bit of our depth away.