2017 Win total poll

[tom81]

It's that time of year again, the roster has been set and the Phans are starting to show their true feelings

Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

We're winning 108 games this year.

Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

I may well be wrong, but I'm optimistic going into this season. Probably not going to win over a hundred, but I'm hoping to see them get 81.

• >100
• 96-100
• 91-95
• 86-90
• 81-85
• 76-80
• 71-75
• 66-70
• 61-65
• <61

Show results

[tom81]

Yea I'm showing my usual early optimism. I think the NL east will be a weak division and our young team will fight for a playoff spot.

[LoneStarPhan]

I'm going for the 81 wins (or more). Spring is the time for optimism but I really expect some young players to step up.

[zambonir]

I'm expecting them to be the same as last year while having a more accurate run differential W-L. I think it's just as likely that three or four members of the starting eight decline as it is that they improve. The kids will eventually help but they are probably not going to come up in August and take the league by a storm.

And I do think the Braves are better. Marlins harder to read right now I guess.

[bkeich]

I have very little confidence in the poor additions to the team as none of them are particularly good players. Add in the fact that we were lucky to have as good a record as we did last year and that was with a relatively healthy team.

I expect regression for some until more of the core is ready. Hope I am wrong, but this team enters the season with no one predicting it to be even an average team.

The fact that Nava and Stassi make the team says a great deal.

[Austinfan]

I'm in the close to .500 camp, basically because of the depth in AAA ball.
Even if some ML players falter or get injured, we have the depth to compensate this year.

And don't diss Stassi, he had a great winter campaign, followed by a very good ST, not just the first weeks when he was ahead of some pitchers, but it continued to the end - and he showed both good plate discipline and power.

I'd say he's already a better player than Howard the last 2-3 seasons!

[ZardozMD]

Has anyone seen the power rankings out there recently? I think the statistical models are really underestimating this team--maybe because we have so many young players? CBS had us one step above San Diego at #29, and ESPN's model projected us to win fewer than 70 games.

While I don't expect us to contend, I think 75-80 wins is reasonable.

[BostonRoss]

I'm surprised at the optimism. 11 of 15 so far think at least 76 wins. I think there is some promise in many of the players, but I don't expect many breakouts in 2017.

[zambonir]

Has anyone seen the power rankings out there recently? I think the statistical models are really underestimating this team--maybe because we have so many young players? CBS had us one step above San Diego at #29, and ESPN's model projected us to win fewer than 70 games.

While I don't expect us to contend, I think 75-80 wins is reasonable.

Last year I thought the 66.5 over/under was really soft and wished I could back up that belief with a bet in Vegas. This year I would be scared to bet on 72.5 either way (and it turned out the bookies knew what they were talking about in terms of run differential).

So yeah, 75 or even 80 wins could happen but I think 70 could too.

Just looking at how last year's starting eight finished - particularly the OBPs of Joseph, Galvis and Rupp - combined with the uncertainty of the two corner OF vets, I get the pessimism. Also no guarantee Herrera and Hernandez deliver better seasons. When the team was good for eight weeks it was because of pitching and there is lots of talent, but also lots of questions, in that department too.

[ZardozMD]

I get the pessimism. Also no guarantee Herrera and Hernandez deliver better seasons. When the team was good for eight weeks it was because of pitching and there is lots of talent, but also lots of questions, in that department too

Well we'll start to get some of those answers pretty soon. The April schedule ain't no cakewalk with home and away series against the Mets and Nats.

[allentown]

I think 78 wins.

[PiedmontPhilly]

This team won only 71 games last year, despite playing excellent baseball the first six weeks of the season, and briefly challenging for first place. I don't see them making that kind of run this year. 73 wins.

[phillychuck]

76 wins if the pitchers are mostly healthy. Could be a real bad year if they're not.

[zambonir]

Here's an interesting bit of handicapping based on spring training stats - ISO and K/BB rate, not any of the others.

The headline is the optimistic part. There's pessimism too.

Are Maikel Franco and Aaron Altherr on the verge of breakout years?

[allentown]

Well, this is why I am so strongly opposed to Pete's love of a fixed line-up with Kendrick. By the time Altherr gets a chance to show what he can do, he'll be ice cold, his good ST will be but a distant memory, and he'll be widely described as the latest flop from the farm. It's the Phillies way.

[LoneStarPhan]

WI'm still trying to get on board with Kendrick, but making two outs in the Phillies' 5 run inning today has me again waiting anxiously for the time he is no longer the left fielder.

[Austinfan]

Mac is in love with Altherr. He doesn't have to defend benching Kendrick, that's Klentak's problem.
Altherr will get his shot, and if he takes advantage of it, will be hard to remove from the lineup.
Same with Stassi.

We're not talking Howard with his connection with the World Series win and $25M of sunk costs.
Kendrick and Saunders can be pushed aside with little effort.

[VoteForKalas]

I voted for the 76-80 option, thinking 77 wins. The margin for error is razor thin so they need good health and have several young talents step up.