Nicasio has a lifetime 3.91 ERA with a 3.58 FIP, so he's been a bit unlucky career-wise.
This is his first full season as a reliever and his ERA went down by more than a run, so it looks like his stuff ticked up. He's also used to pitching more innings than he has this season as a former starter. Throws 94+.
I completely understand your point, but he would be a guy I'd take a chance on. But it's a long shot with his impending Free Agency.