2017-18 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[phillychuck]

The ideal future infield from the players in the system (Galvis, Hernandez, Franco, Crawford, Kingery) includes Hernandez, Crawford, and Kingery offensively, if one could find defensive positions they could play well. Kingery is a gold-glove caliber 2B, and Crawford an outstanding SS, so that means ideally Hernandez should play 3B. His arm is strong enough to play SS, so it should translate to 3B with enough repetitions. I'd like to give that combo at least a half-year trial anyway, if we are giving up on Franco because of his OBP and defense.

[phillychuck]

I would bet that too. But I would also wager that Franco will have negative fielding value and Galvis would be close to a gold glover at 3B. That alone would account for 100+ points of OPS difference. I think Klentak gets that. A 700 OPS positive fielding 3B can be a better player than an 800 OPS negative fielding 3B.

Andy, did you give 100 OPS points as a seat-of-the-pants estimate, or is their data to support that approximation? Just curious.

[allentown]

I wouldn't bet that Franco will have a higher OPS than Galvis next season. They were within 1 OPS point last year, but Franco was going down and Galvis was going up. I remember the Galvis discussion from last winter. The consensus was that he had peaked, even though he was only going into his age 27 season and his numbers were on an upswing; his 20 HRs in 2016 were viewed as an unrepeatable fluke. His HRs did fall off to only 12 in 2017, but overall his hitting -- OBP and OPS increased. Galvis proved that he hadn't peaked in 2016. I see no reason to assume he peaked in 2017, either. It could go either way, but wouldn't surprise me at all if 2018 is the year that Galvis puts up a better than .700 OPS. It would surprise me if Franco put up a better than .800 OPS. It wouldn't surprise me if a new manager and hitting coach got through to him enough to improve his hitting, but .800 strikes me as a reach, even though I know there is a lot of talent still there and that talent once evidenced itself in MLB. That time seems like forever ago.

[Austinfan]

Galvis rebuilt his swing, improved his plate discipline and it showed - but I think he's starting to run into his fundamental limits, he simply doesn't see the ball that well.
But he's a middle of the road starting SS and would have value to a lot of teams that have offense but want to upgrade their defense (and defense has synergies that don't show up in analytics, like getting pitchers out of innings, thus increasing their IPs and reducing the strain on the bullpen, ask the Dodgers if that has value?).

Franco is broken, and I don't know if he's coachable. He's been broke for a year and a half, and can't seem to make adjustments.
The compact swing and power are there, but he gets out of control, opens up, swings too hard, chases bad pitches and won't take the outside pitch to RF.
Maybe he can't see a breaking ball, maybe he just needs to mature, maybe his hot start was a fluke and this is the real Franco.

[julio]

allentown - If we take as a given your positive view of Galvis - that his 2018 will be similar, or better than his 2017... what do you want the Phillies to do with him? Options:

1) Trade him this winter.
2) Hang on to him for now, trade him in July/August.
3) Hang on to him for 2018, let him leave as a FA next winter.
4) Extend him.

Under any of the last three options above, there are additional issues to be decided. Where does Galvis play? Who gets the playing time, among Hernandez, Galvis, Crawford, Franco? Are you advocating that we give up on Franco now? Or that we trade Hernandez and move Galvis to 2B? Or that we limit Crawford's playing time? Or that we have some kind of "four guys for three positions" daily changes in the lineup - recognizing that Hernandez and Crawford have a particular offensive profile (high OBP, top-of-the-order hitters) that Franco and Galvis do not? Are we going to go into half of our games with a guy with an OBP of around .300 in the top of the order, when we have two table-setters who are likely to be posting .350 or better OBP?

Now, if you want to give up on Franco, and put Galvis in the eight-hole as your everyday 3B next April...I could see that, recognizing that Galvis' tenure there is short-term (given the impending FA, and probable trade mid-season) - and assuming 1) Hernandez can move to 3B effectively, and 2) Kingery can come up mid-season and produce similar overall value as Galvis. This would be a "trade Franco now, trade Galvis later" approach. The trade returns probably wouldn't be very exciting - this is more "addition by subtraction" in the case of Franco, and trading off an impending free agent in the case of Galvis.

If your goal is trade value, then Cesar Hernandez is the guy with value - three years of team control, OBP of .370 over the past two seasons, 27 years old. OTOH, if they think Hernandez can handle 3B, one might argue that they'd be crazy to trade him, regardless of what they think Kingery can be. In today's game, .370 OBP players don't grow on trees.

[zambonir]

The ideal future infield from the players in the system (Galvis, Hernandez, Franco, Crawford, Kingery) includes Hernandez, Crawford, and Kingery offensively, if one could find defensive positions they could play well. Kingery is a gold-glove caliber 2B, and Crawford an outstanding SS, so that means ideally Hernandez should play 3B. His arm is strong enough to play SS, so it should translate to 3B with enough repetitions. I'd like to give that combo at least a half-year trial anyway, if we are giving up on Franco because of his OBP and defense.

I'm gonna drag this out of the managerial thread where I proposed Kingery to 3B.

The 2018 Phillies managerial search

I think if I were going to move one of Hernandez or Kingery to 3B (assuming they're both on the roster and productive at the major league level), that I'd want to move Hernandez, not Kingery - because Cesar's defensive play at 2B is nothing special (zone statistics are consistently negative, RF/9 and fielding percentage are average), whereas Kingery is, to all reports and observations, very good in the field. This assumes that Hernandez wouldn't be a disaster defensively at 3B, but of course we don't know that.

To me, because Kingery is better defensively, he might be better suited to the change. I am not so sure Hernandez has the arm. My recollection is that while he can play 3B, he was not as good as Galvis (fielding or throwing), and that he was moved from SS in the minors specifically because he didn't have enough arm (or at least, the scouting reports on him said so).

[allentown]

I would trade Hernandez this winter if I can achieve a reasonable return. I don't think either Hernandez or Kingery has the arm for 3B. Next seasons choice is among Franco, Crawford, and Galvis. I'd lean toward Galvis. The missing IF piece going beyond next season is a third baseman. I don't see Walding as the answer, so we don't have an obvious answer on the farm, even if we give the guys we have another 3 years to develop. So, it will have to be trade or FA or a college 3B in next year's draft. We don't have to make a big move to fill 3B until next off-season, but Klentak should be on the look out for one and pounce at an opportunity. I think a plus starting pitcher is a better goal for this off-season. If Galvis continues to improve, the Phillies could do worse than to extend him during next season.

[zambonir]

Well, we know they want Machado. I guess the question is what sort of consolation prizes will be out there (be it a trade or FA) if that doesn't happen. But I do think it is always on their mind. They are ready to pay, including with players if they can get him early, and maybe all those ex-Orioles guys have reason to feel optimistic.If they can't get him at the deadline they just have to hope he goes somewhere that can't afford him going forward (a la the Dodgers and Yu this year).

[andyb]

Andy, did you give 100 OPS points as a seat-of-the-pants estimate, or is their data to support that approximation? Just curious

Seat of the pants as there are lots of factors, but I don't think I am that off. Since Franco is not a high OBP guy his OWAR is probably close to Nick Williams without the baserunning speed contribution. Williams had an 811 OPS which gave him an OWAR of 1.4 in half a season. So Franco at 800 OPS is probably a 2.5-3.0 OWAR player over a full season. Franco's last 3 seasons of defense (DWAR) were -0.8, -0.4, and -0.2. Maybe he is getting better, but he is clearly a negative still.

Galvis had an OWAR of 1.8 last year on a 690 OPS. On defense he was a small positive (no idea why his overall WAR went down - probably negative baserunning value), but one could say that as a 3B he would be way above average defensively since it is an easier position. So if Galvis adds more than 0.5 DWAR he is likely the better player.

Franco being the better player might require his to have an 850 OPS while getting his OBP over .300. That is a 30-40 HR guy most likely. He could still do that. I just would not count on it.

[allentown]

I think a lot of us fell in love with the idea of Maikel Franco as a minor leaguer and as a rookie. But best to set that emotion aside and stick with logic and stats. Even in his very good rookie year, Maikel was only +1.7 WAR, which translates to +3 WAR for a full year. In 2016 he played a full season, but logged only a +1.2 WAR. This past season, he also played a full season and posted a -0,2 WAR. Unless he drastically improves he is basically a replacement level player. At best, he is +3 WAR for the short time until his body slows down and his defense declines farther. He has had a whole year of Matt Stairs teaching an OBP approach and this impacted his performance not one whit. His OBP dropped below his very inadequate 2016 OBP. I seriously wonder what it will take to reach Maikel and get him to follow a more productive approach to hitting. Perhaps it is just an inadequate skill set and he is a mistake/guess hitter, whom pitchers have learned to handle, and who is not capable of adequate adjustment. After 2016, I thought 2017 was his do or die year, but it looks like he may get another half season to turn things around. If there is any interest, he might be a guy who benefits from plying his trade in another city. He certainly is the farthest from a Klentak player on our 40-man, and he is moving in the wrong direction.

[zambonir]

A change of scenery might be called for no matter what, but unless he gets you something in a deal (most likely a package deal) working with him for five more months (ST and the first half of the season) seems like a good idea, especially when winning games is really still not the top priority. He had a strong July and September (over-.800 OPS) sandwiched around a terrible August, but still a .730 OPS in the second half.

And some of his flaws are just weird - the extra-poor BA in favorable counts, for instance. I don't know if that means he's fixable, or just the opposite. His power is good too obviously, though that's not as precious a commodity these days.

At least the Galvis etc. situation does give them options.

And I agree the phans fell in love with him, mostly because there was no one else at the time.

[flyers19rw]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Kingery was the starting 2B on opening day. He seems to be the high energy, pedal to the metal type of guy that matches Kapler's personality. Kingery has been compared to Utley who is Kapler's guy. Kingery's numbers at LV weren't outstanding but they were still good. We saw several players come up from LV and improve on their performance here in Philly. Kingery might be able to do that as well. Starting Kingery would also send a message to the players in the system as to how they need to play in order to make the grade in this organization.

[Philsmania]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Kingery was the starting 2B on opening day. He seems to be the high energy, pedal to the metal type of guy that matches Kapler's personality. Kingery has been compared to Utley who is Kapler's guy. Kingery's numbers at LV weren't outstanding but they were still good. We saw several players come up from LV and improve on their performance here in Philly. Kingery might be able to do that as well. Starting Kingery would also send a message to the players in the system as to how they need to play in order to make the grade in this organization.

Kingery could bat .400 with an OPS over 1.000 in Clearwater but I still don't think he'll be on the Opening Day roster, not with the trigger on his service time clock an issue.

[zambonir]

I'd bet big against that. Analytics-driven organizations (like the Cubs, Astros and Dodgers) tend to be even more aggressive about service time manipulation/exploitation than we've been accustomed to with the Phillies. He'd have to really explode in ST and even then it might not matter. Especially given he doesn't even have to be on the 40.

[phillychuck]

Back to the Hernandez to 3B discussion. I've read several posters who believe that Cesar doesn't have the arm to play 3B. It's not that much of a necessity. Ron Cey, who probably had the worst arm in the Dodgers' infield at that time (behind Lopes and Russell) played 3B. Pete Rose played 3B when he could barely get the ball to 1B in the air. Edwin Encarnacion allegedly played 3B although he was a really erratic thrower. Bobby Bonilla was probably less accurate than Encarnacion. Finally, batting champion Bill Madlock played 3B for years with a rag arm and almost no range. Not every player on a team is going to be a gold glove player and post a 900 OPS. Cesar at 3B would add a lot offensively, and allow Kingery to play his natural position.

[flyers19rw]

Pederson, Seager and Bellinger came up quickly and so have others for the Dodgers. If a player could produce, they've been brought up.

[zambonir]

You would have to convince me that Kingery is actually comparable to those guys. He's got 63 games at AAA and sub.-800 OPS. Bellinger didn't make the Dodgers out of ST. Certainly if Kingery puts up a 1.000 OPS in April at Lehigh Valley (or even in ST) it would be something to consider. I guess he is more comparable to Seager who didn't set AAA on fire but Seager plays a more defensive position. The real issue is whether the Phillies can and will trade both Galvis and Hernandez (or bench Franco, which would basically mean his Phillies career is over and so is his trade value). If not, they don't need Kingery yet (or even have room for him on the 40 though obviously these things shake out more easily once the season starts). The other difference is the Dodgers were repeated division champions who thought their young players could help them win (and replace older, more expensive players). The Phillies don't have to rush anyone yet.

Regarding Cesar's arm, I am not sure those examples would hold up in 2017, when there is more of premium on defense. But it seems to me that any argument you can make for tolerating Cesar at 3B could also be made for Kingery. It's just a question of comfort level. But the really good players who were asked to switch positions as rookies continued to be really good players.

[julio]

Pederson, Seager and Bellinger came up quickly and so have others for the Dodgers. If a player could produce, they've been brought up.

Brought up quickly - but not one of them made his debut on, or near Opening Day. Two (Pederson and Seager) were September call-ups (think J.P. Crawford in 2017); Bellinger debuted on April 25th this past season. So Philsmania's point seems valid - there are good reasons why Kingery will probably not be on the 25 man roster on Opening Day, even if he goes wild in spring training.

[andyb]

It just makes so much sense for a lot of reasons to have Kingery go to LHV for 2 months. Not just arbitration, but as others have noted, his BB/K ratio could use some improvement and it is his pattern that he does improve in that area after a few months.

Plus we have to move 2 starting infielders to play him. Pretty sure we will move one of Galvis or Hernandez to accommodate Crawford, but it is less likely we move both. While you could maybe make the team marginally better by playing Hernandez or Galvis or even Crawford at 3B it would be a MARGINAL improvement. So everybody that argues that the team should not invest in top free agents like Darvish because another 4 WAR will not make us contenders, why would we play a middle infielder at 3B (and potentially hurt prospect development) for a measly 1 WAR gain.

Playing a middle infielder at 3B is a move a contender would make for an extra win, not a move a rebuilding team would make that is trying to move its prospects into their best position for the future.

[Dirk41]

Would the O's move Gausman?