2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[tom81]

Darvish under the previous market would have gotten a 6 year/$175 million deal. If he can be signed for 5/120 then that is a bargain that may never come around again. Time to sign Darvish now.

I agree with what he would have gotten in the previous market and also agree that he might take a 5 year deal now at close to the number you suggest. There may be more than one team willing to go there for Darvish so I think it takes a bit more $ to get him. I think Darvish is the perfect fit for us in this type of deal. He lends creditability to the team, he takes a load off the younger pitchers, and we can afford his salary over that time frame. The way the politics are going in MLB a five year deal may actually be a four year deal with the fifth being cancelled by the strike.

[EDmuch]

I think Phils may have to go 5 years, $140 million to lure him away from teams that are closer to being playoff ready this year. Would anyone go $140 ?????

[allentown]

I agree on Darvish. I think $120 million/4 gets it done and also leaves the hope of a follow-on FA deal somewhere as a spur toward top performance.

I think raising the minimum salary and salaries for guys with 1 and 2 years experience would be significant. When I say 1.0 years, I mean 1.0 years, as in if you start your second major league season a month short of 1.0, then you get an automatic raise after that month. This also eliminates some of the gamesmanship over starting guys a month into the season. Like a $15/hr minimum wage, it would also impact guys higher up the ladder -- at least everyone in arb years. I remain unconvinced that the various FA permutations have done much for the lower paid half of MLB players and doubt there is a formula which would help. I suggested several other approaches in addition to the higher minimums, which would increase payrolls, with the biggest impact being the bottom 2/3 of salaries.

[Austinfan]

The other thing that helps the rank and file are better benefits, including shorter eligibility requirements for pensions and higher pension payments (and requirements to fund pensions).
Raising minor league salaries would also be a good thing.

[andyb]

Benefits and minimum salaries are all nice but they are distractions. The negotiations have taken MLB players' share of MLB revenues down from a little over 50% to below 40%. 50% was arguably too high as the expense of running baseball organizations outside of MLB salary is probably greater than in other sports, but there was no real justification to essentially lower the players' share by one quarter. Other than the players getting rolled by the owners. And BTW those revenue share numbers INCLUDE benefits. The luxury tax calculation now includes close to $14 million for benefits.

I am all for higher minimums and benefits. They just need to be negotiated after the share of the revenue pie is negotiated. The players negotiated for those things before - and that was just plain stupid on their part. Maybe a strike would have happened if they asked for more like I am advocating, but maybe they needed to force a strike. Billionaire owners always have more leverage in these situations and the players need stick together to get what they deserve.

[julio]

A post was split to a new topic: Survey for Phils fans

[andyb]

Frazier to the Mets for 2/$17 million. Pretty good bargain for them.

[tom81]

Maybe he declines a bit due to age and puts up around 4 WAR in those two years. 4/WAR sounds really cheap. Hope we can get a starter for 2 to 4 years at that price.

[zambonir]

I mean, that's pretty cheap. Cheap enough to make him a 400 AB bench player or make him tradeable, if you're the Phillies, though that scenario probably only made sense before Santana.

[andyb]

I mean, that's pretty cheap. Cheap enough to make him a 400 AB bench player or make him tradeable, if you're the Phillies, though that scenario probably only made sense before Santana.

Not really a fit for us as you say, but still a bargain. I think there is definitely some collusion out there though a unique form of collusion. Teams feel free to have low payrolls when they are rebuilding, so there is less pressure to spend from 10+ teams since there is no payroll floor. Then we have new pressure from the top with big market teams declining to spend because they want to reset their tax rate for when they go way over next year.

Which makes me think the Phillies really need to take advantage this year because there is no way we get Harper or Machado next year. These are artificial bargains based on an imperfect market (in part created by the players' negotiating stupidity). We really need to come out of this with one of the top 4 arms - Darvish or Arrieta or Cobb or Lynn. With Darvish being the priority since there is no compensation.

[LoneStarPhan]

After years of taking huge risks by giving free agents long-term contracts, the clubs have finally seen that dollars so spent are usually overpayment and in some cases, down right loses. Smart executives figure where they can do the most good for the club. They have no obligation to provide free agents with lucrative contracts. This certainly is not collusion. However, I agree that the Phillies may have an opportunity in the next couple weeks to add a player or two if they can get the free agent they think can help to accept a 3 year deal.

[zambonir]

Which makes me think the Phillies really need to take advantage this year because there is no way we get Harper or Machado next year.

I see no reason why the Phillies can't be the highest bidder there. If they lose because Harper wants to be a Cub or Machado wants to be a Yankee fine. But I think this front office has a high level of confidence about getting Machado, as well as the readiness to hand out the largest contract of all-time. Kind of the whole point of the low payroll up to now.

But yes. They should go get a pitcher. Not only to exploit the market inefficiency but to make the team better for next year's sales pitch, as we've always said, but now the price is right.

I don't think the market is necessarily going to swing back in the players' favor next year though. Yeah, the Yanks and Dodgers (and Phillies) will be spending again, but the macro forces aren't going anywhere.

Just a matter of whether one of these pitchers will take an offer than the Phillies can live with, as Santana did. They may have all already turned down (for now) the best offer the Phillies are willing to make (and not just the Phillies, obviously).

[EDmuch]

While there is a lot of speculation here that this is the time for the Phils to make a move due to the tight market, I am not convinced they see it that way. I still think the Phils are using their new found love of statistical analysis to limit their interest to "value" players who fit there desire for OBP hitters and pitchers who throw strikes. I just don't see them going away form that approach because there are some weaknesses in the market. I wish they would. But I don't see it happening.

[tom81]

Just a matter of whether one of these pitchers will take an offer than the Phillies can live with, as Santana did. They may have all already turned down (for now) the best offer the Phillies are willing to make (and not just the Phillies, obviously).

Some of the pitchers may also be having a hard time deciding if they will accept a higher AAV contract offer with fewer years versus the lower AAV offer with more years.

[zambonir]

still think the Phils are using their new found love of statistical analysis to limit their interest to "value" players who fit there desire for OBP hitters and pitchers who throw strikes. I just don't see them going away form that approach because there are some weaknesses in the market. I wish they would. But I don't see it happening.

I mean, I don't really wish that. If their scouting and analytics find, for instance, Arrieta, lacking - either overall, or because they project he won't be an effective higher-end starter for most of the contract - why sign him? Not worth the money, not worth the years, not worth the draft pick.

But the analytics also apply to contracts. Whatever they offered Chatwood, they weren't willing to go higher. There's probably a number/years they were/are willing to offer Arrieta or Cobb too. What it would take to sign Darvish, probably, is to ignore everything your scouts and statistical models are telling you and make a move based on instinct, which to some extent they already did w/ Santana even if he checked off all the boxes as a hitter.

I still think they need an arm, mind you, but with the market the way it is they should still be able to get one of the guys who might have required a three-year deal for one or two. They might only add 1.5 WAR instead of 3 but the argument is that none of these guys will be worth more than 1.5 in two seasons...and some of the internal candidates who still need a lot of work will.

[andyb]

If I had to guess the Phillies really are unsure what they want to do here. They DO want to add an arm. They might have gone into the offseason thinking Darvish would be too expensive and now the price is coming back to where they wanted. It is not as if Darvish is an inefficient pitcher that would upset their analytics. Arrieta too. I think they were wary of 6-7 years for any pitcher and 4-5 sounds better.

One thing the Phillies have done is set a tone that they ARE willing to pay above market price for the player they want. One could argue that all three of our acquisitions (Santana, Hunter, Neshek) were a bit above their expected market value.

This pattern suggests to me that they are one of 3 or 4 clubs seriously in on Darvish. They probably realize they are in a weak division and have the possibility of a real contending team this year. They could certainly hedge their bets and see if they need to add midseason. But there is an argument to go for the top of the market if prices are depressed by 20%. After all, if their real contending window starts in 2019, it is the top of the market guys (Darvish, Arriera, Cobb) that are more likely to still be good in their 2nd season.

We also have the Cesar Hernandez trade potential for midseason. There are lots of ways to keep this team on the potential contender list for 2018 without killing much of their future.

[zambonir]

Clearly right now nobody knows anything. 8 days until pitchers and catchers.

Granted the Phillies do a pretty good job of keeping out of the rumor mill, I know it was reported that they'd asked about Darvish, but they don't seem like one of the three or four active teams to me (the original six clubs were Rangers, Yankees, Cubs, Twins, Astros and a mystery team, which may have been the Dodgers, and then the Brewers are reportedly the team that made him an offer (which may not exist anymore after they took on all that other payroll). Obviously the Astros are out and there's still reason to think NY and LA can't make it happen.

But, if he does have a five-year deal on the table, how high would the Phillies have to go on a four- year deal to get him? That's also assuming the team offering him the five-year deal can't offer something else the Phillies can't (i.e. immediate contention or a 10-minute commute from his year-round home).

Arietta is the guy the Phillies have been mentioned with more often because of the Orioles history. And he does make me nervous. 3.8 WAR in 2016, 2.4 in 2017. Even if he bounces back this year is it worth the compensation (of all kinds) if he's only a 1.5 pitcher in 2020 and 2021? If that, should injury or a dramatic decline occur.

I think the Phillies would still prefer the trade for a younger guy but that market is tougher. And they're not ready to open the season with Kingery even if Hernandez and an OF could actually get you someone.

[schillingfan]

While there is a lot of speculation here that this is the time for the Phils to make a move due to the tight market, I am not convinced they see it that way. I still think the Phils are using their new found love of statistical analysis to limit their interest to "value" players who fit there desire for OBP hitters and pitchers who throw strikes. I just don't see them going away form that approach because there are some weaknesses in the market. I wish they would. But I don't see it happening.

I think management has their game plan and statistical analysis. They also have an owner who, while not meddlesome like Steinbrenner, also has a desire to win and that is factored into any plan. They won't change their plan, but they might be willing to push the envelope in terms of money, Middleton wanting to be top dog in the city again and the apparently changed free agent market could alter plans. So they might be willing to offer an extra year or $20 million over what their original game plan was.

[Austinfan]

I think Klentak is pretty disciplined, they aren't looking to lowball anyone, just that they have a sense of value and they seem to be sticking to it, and they should, if you don't trust your internal analysis, you're screwed in any case.

Santana wasn't an overpay, he fit what they valued, switchhitter, good contact/high OBP power hitter who isn't showing a lot of decline even though he's older, and provides better defense for two rookie middle infielders. That checks off a lot of boxes, and he only has to give them 7-8 WAR to make it worthwhile.

Solid RPs are a good bet to give you 1 WAR, and if you're lucky, 2 WAR for at least a year, so there wasn't much downside risk and some upside to both deals.

[andyb]

Most people think the Phillies overpaid for Santana. Here is what Fangraphs was projecting in a positive article about him:

Carlos Santana: A Hosmer Alternative | FanGraphs Baseball

The Neshek and Hunter contracts were also seen as above market.

MLBTR projections:
Santana 3/45 (actual 3/60 with $25 million in year 1)
Hunter 2/12 (2/18 with $12 million in year 1)
Neshek 2/12 (2/16.25 with $9.75 million in year 1)

It seems pretty clear that the Phillies overpaid to get the guys they wanted. Nothing wrong with that. We also have the ability to front load which increases the present value of deals. With just about every other contract coming in under projections the Phillies are willing to pay for quality and that is a good thing.